Top Ten Best Draft Picks in CBA History
Every General Manager in the CBA can probably point to at least one draft moment where they should’ve picked a future superstar, but instead took a lesser player. The goal of this article and the accompanying spreadsheet was to determine the best and worst draft picks in league history. Before we dive into the fun stuff, I included a brief methodology of how the spreadsheet ranks picks, feel free to skip it.
Methodology
The spreadsheet compares the WAR of players drafted between 2021 and 2025 to the average WAR of players drafted in a one pick radius in the five year period. For example, the tenth pick is compared to all of the other ninth, tenth and eleventh picks. I have found a few flaws with this method as described in the conclusion, but I think it yielded pretty solid results.
10th Best Pick of All Time: 2022 2nd Overall Seth Paddock (SBBC)
Expected WAR: 11.36 | WAR Produced 21.7 | Net Gain 10.34
Even though Paddock isn’t an elite starting pitcher in the Premier League, he’s still a suitable number one starter. The spreadsheet doesn’t account for the difference in competition between each league, which benefits Paddock. Those two knocks aside, to land the 18th most valuable pitcher in league history is no small feat.
9th Best Pick of All Time: 2021 128th Overall Matt Peterson (SBBC)
Expected WAR: .897 | WAR Produced 11.8 | Net Gain 10.98
Another Warriors pitcher bringing huge value, this pick was great in a different way. Even though he never pitched for Miami, Peterson has produced enough WAR to be the 8th best player from the first amatuer draft. Maybe because he was coming out of high school that teams were scared off, but he would be a surefire first rounder in a re-draft.
8th Best Pick of All Time: 2022 15th Overall Alejandro Pena (SBBC)
Expected WAR: 4.55 | WAR Produced 15.67 | Net Gain 11.11
Ok, I promise these all aren’t Miami picks with “P” last names. Pena who was helped by a massive rookie season in the BL much like Paddock, is the 5th most valuable player from his draft class so far. While he is now no more than a platoon catcher for the Pandas, Pena was a steal for the Warriors at 15.
7th Best Pick of All Time: 2022 26th Overall Ryan Gomar (SDBC)
Expected WAR: 2.4 | WAR Produced 13.58 | Net Gain 11.18
Finally some diversity in teams. Gomar has notoriously fallen off as he ages, but he was and still is a decent hitter and fantastic glove at shortstop. He had his best season as a Brooklyn Bulldog before regression hit. Even though he’s no longer of superstar status, the spreadsheet shows it’s tough to find value late in the first round, which boosts the Gomar selection.
6th Best Pick of All Time: 2021 24th Overall John Lawson (BAP)
Expected WAR: 3.78 | WAR Produced 15.32 | Net Gain 11.53
The lefty out of Pepperdine fell to the Pandas late in the first round and snapping Lawson up was definitely the right move. The top three starting pitchers by WAR from the 2021 draft all landed with Bay Area, which is extremely impressive. Lawson being the last of the three picked, was the runt of the “aces litter.” It will be interesting to see how the ballpark changes affect Lawson, Colombo and Shinkle.
5th Best Pick of All Time: 6th Overall Cameron Brasted (WIC)
Expected WAR: 9.24 | WAR Produced 21.42 | Net Gain 12.18
“The Stud” has certainly lived up to his nickname. Brasted is coming off the worst year of his career, but has torn up CBA pitching since being the sixth overall pick. Being traded into the Silver League and now Premier League has certainly hurt his stats, but Brasted has likely locked down a spot on this list for the next few years.
4th Best Pick of All Time: 2022 4th Overall Abe Caputo (LABC)
Expected WAR: 10.11 | WAR Produced 26.66 | Net Gain 16.54
Los Angeles really nailed this pick, landing the most valuable player in the class fourth overall. It’s not easy to get a “steal” in the top five, but this qualifies. Posting a career 140 OPS+ and 21.3 ZR, Caputo is an all time great in the CBA. Honest Abe has been a legitimate franchise cornerstone and is still only 29 years young.
3th Best Pick of All Time: 2021 4th Overall Tyler Shinkle (BAP)
Expected WAR: 10.11 | WAR Produced 26.69 | Net Gain 16.57
Shinkle, the best of the three Bay Area pitchers mentioned earlier in this article, has been an absolute beast for the Pandas. He barely edged out Caputo for the bronze medal of picks, but who can really complain. While Todoroff, DeWitt and Horton are nice players, (Justin Casey is not,) Shinkle is mathematically the best of the top five picks.
2nd Best Pick of All Time: 2022 9th Overall Jesse Robison (HOU)
Expected WAR: 8.148 | WAR Produced 25.21 | Net Gain 17.06
After a tumultuous offseason for “Nutball,” this should cheer him up a bit. Robison has been traded twice and signed an extension and is now on the Mexico City Chupacabras. While he did post solid numbers in the PL and SL, most of Robison’s WAR comes from the Bronze League. It is likely that Boston regrets passing on him for Ricardo Garcia.
THE Best Pick of All Time: 2021 9th Overall Danny Crews
Expected WAR: 8.148 | WAR Produced 32.95 | Net Gain 24.8
This pick being first on the rankings is actually how I checked the spreadsheets accuracy. Landing an all time great at ninth overall is no small feat, especially considering Crews was the third outfielder to come off the board. Gaining nearly 25 WAR more than expected based on draft slot is borderline insanity.
Quick Hit Conclusions:
- I shouldn’t have included 2023, 2024 and 2025 in my spreadsheet, even though a few guys are close to cracking the top ten.
- Bay Area, Miami and Dallas are good at this draft thing
- Picks four and nine seem to be magical
- Matt Peterson was the only true “steal” in the top ten
- Players who spent time in the BL are unfairly boosted, which makes Crews’ accomplishments more impressive