Portland Axemen season preview – 2024

The Portland’s Axemen’s 2023 season was a disaster before it even started. Sure, you probably think I’m referring to the team losing four of their five starting pitchers in Spring Training. But the problems go deeper than that.

The issues started when Portland General Manager, Michael Edelman, made some win now moves coming off a season in which the Axemen lead the Championship Baseball League in run differential. For example, the Axemen traded outfielder Chad Lynch and starting pitcher Jon Perez for designated hitter Tony Falcon.

The 36 year old Falcon’s production immediately fell off a cliff. His OPS fell by nearly .300 points while Chad Lynch and Jon Perez flourished, having 4.2 WAR and 2.2 WAR seasons respectively. Portland’s struggles were only compounded when their lone starting pitcher acquisition (and Jon Perez’ replacement) Chris Khouri was healthy for all of one game in 2023 before promptly retiring.

Of course, any discussion of Portland’s off-season wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the $60 million elephant in the room. Miguel Gutierrez, signed to the largest contract in Championship League Baseball history, managed a moderate 2.7 WAR season in the Premier League. So it wasn’t exactly surprising when such a mismanaged team was then demoted to the Silver League in a relegation series.

Some general managers may have seen such a disaster of a season as a wakeup call that it was time to rebuild. But instead Portland’s general manager saw the season as a wakeup call that he needed to do a better job constructing his roster. It simply wouldn’t be enough to make minor tweaks to the already competitive team that he inherited.

That retooling process had already begun prior to the draft in 2023 when Portland traded that year’s first, third and fourth round draft picks for that season in return for Wichita’s draft picks in the same round in 2024. And it then continued at the rental deadline when Portland rented out many of its best players including first baseman Timothee Brandi, starting pitcher Bill Alcala, shortstop Brett Mandell, catcher Carlos Bonilla and reliever Oscar Martinez in return for even more draft picks.

When the Wichita Weasels then went on to finish second to last in the Bronze League with a -154 run differential, Portland found themselves in possession of the 3rd draft pick overall for the 2024 season. It didn’t take long for Portland to cash in that bargaining chip.

The Austin Outlaws traded Portland 2/5ths of their rotation in 24 year old lefthander Jose Lopez and 30 year old Byron Juhl, as well as 25 year old left handed reliever Chad Powers, who projects as the team’s set up man. Portland was also able to partially undo their Tony Falcon trade by reacquiring starting pitcher Jon Perez from the Indianapolis Hawks.

Through additional trades, Portland was able to acquire 28 year old outfielder Victor Rodriguez, 31 year old outfielder Jonathan Macias and 32 year old reliever Steve Baker. And so the team was quietly able to add a group of players who compiled 11.3 WAR last year. But even that number doesn’t tell the entire story.

Portland’s goal was not to add players who had compiled the gaudiest statistics, but instead to attempt to add players who they felt underperformed their abilities. Take starting pitcher Jose Lopez for example. Lopez put up an ugly 5.40 ERA in the Silver League in 2023. But in the larger context Lopez had pitched to a 2.14 ERA (2.64 FIP) in 46.1 innings in reserves before his call up where he had a .366 BABIP on a defensively challenged Outlaws team that had a .325 BABIP as a whole.

Reliever Chad Powers is a similar story. Powers put up an even uglier 6.23 ERA on that same Outlaws team. But the majority of those struggles came when he was being used a starting pitcher with only two pitches. As a reliever last year, Powers had a much more dominant 2.57 ERA.

The hitters that Portland acquired have a similar story. While outfielder Victor Rodriguez had a respectable .869 OPS last year with plus defense, it was really against lefthanded hitters where he excelled, with an OPS of .948. And that’s exactly how the Axemen plan on utilizing him in 2024, by platooning him with left fielder Bertrando Toro who struggled mightily against left handed pitching last season to the tune of a .661 OPS. The same goes for newly acquired outfielder Jonathan Macias, who hit an equally respectable .948 OPS against left handed pitchers last season.

Perhaps just as important as the players that Portland added are the ones that they held on to. Portland managed to improve its roster without trading away 25 year old starting pitcher Fredrick Smallwood, 23 year old catcher Ruben Hernandez or 29 year old infielder Roberto Hernandez or their number one prospect 21 year old Soong-Yong Kim. And all four players figure to play important roles on the team in 2024.

Whereas the 2023 version of the Portland Axemen went into the season with one major league caliber starting pitcher in Bill Alcala, this year they go into the season featuring six healthy major league caliber starting pitchers. That’s where Fredrick Smallwood comes in as the team’s longman and sixth starting pitcher option. Smallwood who throws in the high 90’s with four quality pitches has pitched to a 2.78 ERA over 68 innings in the majors.

Only time will tell if the retooling of the team will be enough to make it back to the Premiere League in 2025. But the Portland organization is feeling hopeful that their revamped pitching staff, quality depth additions and the hoard of draft picks that they’ve acquired will get the organization on the right track headed forward.

 

2024 Predictions
Projected Record: 75-51 (.595)
Team MVP: Miguel Gutierrez
Team Cy Young: Bill Alcala
Team Reliever of the Year: Vince Buckley
Team Gold Glove: Jonathan Macias
Team Rookie of the Year: Soong-Yong Kim
Comeback Player of the Year: Jimmy Cohen

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