101-61 record with +178 run differential
Offensive Profile: Dominant. Arguably the best offense in baseball ranking 1st in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, WAR, WPA, etc, etc, etc lol
SP Profile: Ranks 6th in league in ERA but that is deceiving. Anchored by veterans Patino (sparkling 1.00 ERA this postseason) & Senzatela and supported by youngsters Carpio & Montalvo. While it isn't the most consistent rotation it has one of the highest ceiling in the game IMO with those ratings. Any of those 4 have the ability to throw a gem at any point.
BP Profile: Again the rankings are not great for their BP (10th in the league) but make no mistake, this BP is not a weakness. Outside of one blowup outing by Rodriguez, they have a 1.68 ERA this postseason. Their 0.45 ERA
(again outside the blowup outing) is the reason SF lost in the Championship Series. Biggest strength: Ability to get hits makes the offense very consistent. They get hits and put pressure on the defense, and generally do everything on offense well except take walks (overrated, just like the movie Moneyball :rolling_on_the_floor_laughing:)
Biggest weakness: Allowing too many free runners. While ATL pitching ranks well and is 1st in HR allowed, they do allow too baserunners with walks and errors.
Key pitcher for the series: Has to be Patino. 1.00 ERA so far this postseason and he is not lined up to face Milligan and gives ATL a great shot at winning 2 games this series himself.
Key hitter for the series: Corral has been their better hitter so far this postseason but I'm going to say Franco. He has only hit .209/.261/.279 this postseason. Playing half the series at Angel Stadium, Franco needs to step it up and come up with some key hits this series.
LAA:
93-69 record with a +100 run differential
Offensive Profile: Gets the job done. They are league average in most categories. Like ATL they do not strikeout much and they do not walk (see comment above about Moneyball
). SP Profile: Their SP has the top ERA in the league led by lefty Cy Young favorite Milligan (2.38 ERA
). With co-ace Medina out for the year they will need Boadas, McGuire, & Estrada to step up and shutdown ATL offense. BP Profile: Somehow only ranks 6th in the league for the year, but like ATL, this bullpen is
. Getting CL Rodriguez back (after first few games) allows Graterol to move back to the setup role with Ramos. With those 3 closing out games it will be tough for ATL to generate runs late. Biggest strength: Defense. They are ranked highly both in ZR & defensive efficiency which is going to be INCREDIBLY important in this series since ATL thrives on getting base hits.
Biggest weakness: SP, while their 3-5 starters are all solid #3's, losing Medina robs them of that 1-2 punch that is vital against this ATL offense.
Key pitcher for the series: McGuire, LAA needs this guy to step up and keep his team in the game early twice in the series.
Key hitter for the series: Mike Trout, the GOAT. Maybe he is tired from a full season but he is only hitting .159/.296./.341 this postseason. He needs to come up with some big hits to propel this team to victory.
Comparison:
Offensive advantage: ATL - this Atlanta offense is very good and can thrive either either ballpark
SP advantage: ATL - Both have the ace but ATL has a deeper 2-4 starters
BP advantage: Push - Would give LAA the advantage but Rodriguez is out for 4 games and ATL BP is hot
Defensive advantage: LAA - this is a bigger advantage than a normal series with both teams heavily relying on BABIP.
Summary: Both are strong teams and 100% belong here. ATL is a supremely talented team that hits and pitches well. LAA has dominant pitching with good defense and sufficient offense that tends to do well it the postseason. Early leads will be super important as I don't see many runs scored late in games (hoping for the some extra inning games
). Prediction: ATL over LAA in 6
I predict a lot of close games. ATL will struggle against Milligan and the BP, but will score enough runs against the rest of the LAA SP to win the series, with Patino & co shutting down LAA offense.