NL Champion Offseason Recap & Season Preview

[Chris_SFG]

NL Champion Division

Teams that left the division: PHI-
Teams that joined the division: LAD+

New York Mets:
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: NYM lost 2 big bats in C Miller & RF Brodey to FA, both commanding $25M+ in annual value. They also lost 2 big pitchers to injuries – SP Buehler is out for the year and SP Mederos will be out at least half the year.
Players Acquired: The only ML addition to the Mets roster was a waiver claim LF Trought from ATL. However they also signed C Bins to a minor league contract and looks like he will make the roster.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: All eyes in Queens are on 1B Toglia. Signed to a large contract prior to the 2028 season he has disappointed so far in NY. Last season he put up a paltry .198/.260/.332 slash line for -1.3 WAR. NYM needs Toglia to be the all-star player they signed him to be with a contract that is guaranteed through 2033.
Pitcher to Watch: Since the position player was a bit of a downer let’s go positive here. SP Ochoa has yet to make more than 23 starts or 138 innings. This guy has Cy Young potential, especially with his 75 stamina. Look for him to break out in 2029.
Expectation:[/b] A team that’s rotation included SP Buehler, SP Mederos, SP Ochoa, SP Szapucki, and SP Zoll; and a lineup that would include C Miller, RF Brodey, 2B Cruz, SS Mauricio, LF Benintendi would be a team that could make some serious noise. Unfortunately when you take away 4 of those players you are left with a good but deeply flawed team. I still like their rotation to be average to above average, but their lineup takes a serious hit. NYM went 83-79 last season, and I think they end somewhere similar this season, my guess is 75-85 wins.

Pittsburgh Pirates:
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: Like the other team from PA, there was a lot of turnover in PIT. They lost 2 key MI to FA – SS De Castro & 2B Adames. They also lost CF Gavilan, C Sanchez, and SP Dugger.
Players Acquired: Although not the same caliber players, they brought in some replacements. They made trades to acquire CF Del La Cruz, C Smith, and SS Vaughns through various trades. They also signed SP Barria and 2B Altuve.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 1B Olson. He only put up 1.5 WAR with a .789 OPS last year. At 35 yrs old, was it a down year or is he a player in decline?
Pitcher to Watch: RP White. This guy has been so dominant that he has had a K% above 34% every year since his rookie season, until last year when he only struck out 24.5% of batters faced. He is coming off a partially torn labrum, can he go back to being the same dominant pitcher?
Expectation: This is a team who won 91,92,105,107,103 games before only winning 70 in 2028. I would love to have seen those dominant teams because the team I see now looks like a shell of them. I see 2-3 hitters that belong in a playoff lineup (Brown, Caballero, & Cartagena), and while I do like their pitching (assuming White & Guthrie are in the starting rotation) I do not see it as good enough to carry a bottom offense. My guess is the pitching and defense carries this team to 65-75 wins.

Milwaukee Brewers:
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: The big trade was unloading the SS Soto contract, along with quality prospects, to HOU. This came after trading for LF Acuna Jr. Acuna’s deal has less money committed and one less year, so MIL is banking on Acuna having the higher production going forward. They also let relievers Giles & Guzman and catchers Sanders & Rogers hit FA.
Players Acquired: As stated above MIL acquired LF Acuna Jr, hoping for a bounce back season from him. They also got C Claunch in the Livan Soto trade. And last they signed 2 bats in 1B Alonso & RF Sheets. They were clearly targeting offensive upgrades after ranking 3rd worst in runs scored in 2028.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: I’m going to cheat here. They acquired 3 bats to try and provide some offense that was missing in Acuna Jr, Alonso, and Sheets. They desperately need some real offense from at least 1 of those guys.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Baquero has been a nice mid-rotation starter in his career. At 24 years old he still has the talent to perform even better. MIL would love to see him step up and make a nice 1-2 punch with Vega.
Expectation: Last season MIL went 80-82, with the pitching being above average and the hitting was dreadful. Their rotation looks solid, they might have the best MI defense in baseball, but offense is still going to be an issue. Unless they can squeeze some offensive production from somewhere, the ceiling on this team is limited, despite how good the pitching is. I see a 75-85 win season for this team.

Los Angeles Dodgers:
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: LAD only lost long reliever/spot starter Matt Manning to FA. Though I will mention that mid-rotation SP Chace will miss this whole season with a torn flexor tendon suffered last September.
Players Acquired: Their major pickup this offseason was signing SP Cabrera who looks like he will slot in the middle to back of the rotation (though he has only made 17 big leagues starts in his career). They also picked up 1B Kieboom in the Rule 5 draft, hoping he can recapture some 2027 magic (doesn’t appear he has lost much in ratings) & LF Calilao.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: At age 36, is Mookie Betts potential HOF career coming to an end? He had a career low 14 HR, .726 OPS, & 1.8 WAR last year as his worst full season in the big leagues. He has a career 424 HR and another 24 this season would put him in the top 50 all-time. All that said, his 2027 was one of his best, so it may be too early to write him off yet…
Pitcher to Watch: LAD really needs Cabrera to step up and be the #2 starter behind Hernandez. As stated before, he has only made 17 starts in the big leagues - with 12 of those coming in 2027. Fortunately LAD has a lot of talented long arms so Cabrera's stamina won't be an issue, just needs to give the team 5 solid innings every 5th day.
Expectation: This Dodgers team that won 96 games last year and ranked first in runs allowed in the league brings back most of the same pitching staff. However, they are missing Chace this year, and their entire starting rotation is over the age of 30 and by the end of the season 4/5 will be 33 or older. Peralta’s FIP was also almost a full run higher than his ERA. All that to say, I can see some regression from the starting pitching…but the bullpen looks as fierce as last year. I do not see any meaningful change on the offensive side where they ranked average last season. All in all I can see something close to last season and would expect 90-100 wins and push for the division.

San Francisco Giants:
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: SF had some decent turnover with a new GM in his first offseason. They lost a couple important SP acquired at the deadline in Alcala & Nola to FA. They also lost a couple OF power bats in Brinson (FA) & Rivera (trade).
Players Acquired: While they lost some OF bats they more than replaced their production. They traded for CF Zabala (defensive specialist) & CL Lucas from SEA. They also traded for RP Curry from MIA to continue beefing a weak BP. And the crown jewel of the offseason was signing RF Fabian who is absolutely perfect for SF (great defense, hit tool, eye).
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: SF has 3 players they are hoping for repeat big seasons from. I’m going with CF Bryce Johnson. He managed to hia .329 (2nd in the league) with an OBP of .408 (1st in the league) last season. Those were by far career highs in 2028, and my scout is showing some rating regression in 2029.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Malone. He had a 2.91 ERA last season, but that may have been more luck based than SF wants to admit. He had a league low BABIP of .243, and a FIP of 4.14. SF is leaning on him to complete the fearsome 3 top of the rotation.
Expectation: SF will win 173-0 (including the playoffs) to sweep the World Series. Haha, too optimistic? They are coming off a 95 win season where the pitching ranked 2nd in the league (no surprise in Oracle Park) and an average offense (which is an accomplishment). While the back end of the starting rotation may not be quite as good, they still boast one of the best 3 top of the rotation arms in baseball (Kopech, Paulino, Malone), and have 2 young players filling out the back end with plenty of reserves. They also focused on beefing up the bullpen which was a weakness last year. The offense is also better with a legit CF, and star RF, and most other positions the same. Realistically I see a 95-105 win season and a fight for the division. That said they are relying heavy on their star players (Malone, Kopech, Paulino, Lucas, Mora, Lindor, and Fabian). If any of them have a down season or an injury it would leave the division wide open for another team.

Summary: Like the NL Professional Division I see 3 clear tiers here. SF and LAD should battle it out for the division (slight edge to SF IMO), NYM & MIL shouldn’t be too far behind and vie for a WC spot, and PIT bringing up the rear. That said, there is talent on all these teams, and if SF stumbles and LAD struggles out of the gate, I could see NYM or MIL making a run at the division. As always, there is a reason we play the games. Best of luck to all teams this season!

For the GMs of the NL Champion Division:
What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
What is your record prediction for your team this season?
Who is the most underrated player on your club?
What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Who wins the NL Champion division this year?

[Chris_SFG]

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
Bullpen. We blew the most saves in the NL last year. Was able to trade for CL Lucas, RP Curry as well as building depth including top 200 prospect lefty Elieis de Ana.
What is your record prediction for your team this season?
Won 95 last year. I believe with the big additions and much more depth I am expecting 100 wins this season. 
Who is the most underrated player on your club?
This was tough with my team relying on a lot of star talent. I'm going to say 3B Rodriguez. He broke out last year and hit .301/.368/.428 with good defense, putting up 3.1 WAR season. He looks to be a solid all-star caliber player shadowed by the stars on his team. 
What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Make it to the World Series. Playoffs can be a crap-shoot but I believe I have built team depth and a bullpen that should bode well in the playoffs. Lindor is also a FA after this year, we would love to get this future HOF a WS ring in case he doesn't return. 
Who wins the NL Champion division this year?
It's going to be a tough race, mostly with LAD I expect, but I believe SF will successfully defend their division title. 

[khlod]

LAD's answer to rival's analysis...

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
One of our weakness could be our rotation, as it is right now, because I know those veterans will all probably end up go on IL, but the good news is, we have a lot of young Dominicains waiting to prove themself in the big league. So guys like Severino and Peralta are on a hot seat. Moise Chance has just suffered a setback and this a major deception, he will probably never come back as promising as he was. The Genesis Cabrera experience as a starter, until now, is doing interesting things, because of our bullpen depth, but he will probably end up in the bullpen, if not on IL until All Star break.

Or offensive lineup could use more pop but I kind of like the good balance we have between average bats and above average defense all around. Juan Huertas and Tristan Hanoia have been very usefull to this team. We ante up on Nick Pratto as an FA because, we could effectively have use more power at this position. But if Carter Kieboom does well, it will have been a bargain then.

What is your record prediction for your team this season? / What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Kind of suprised that OOTP gave us a 96 win prediction. I would have said more around 87-90, going into playoff by the 2nd wilcard birth... Coming back in the Champ division means more game vs harsh and bitter rivals, and this division seems stacked. Rest assured, we will not go down without a fight. A successul season would be what OOTP predicted!

Who is the most underrated player on your club?
Dennis Santana! When he's on DL our rotation and bullpen feel the consequences. He has been a major factor in our last year success!
Freddy Peralta, great follower guy in back end of rotation. When not in rotation: above average bullpen arm.
Wenceel Perez. Major defender with steady quality AB.


Who wins the NL Champion division this year?
Im not into prediction much. Soooooooo many thing can happen. I'll let the algorithm do their job. Can't wait get our ass kicked by SF!

Thanks for all of this hard work CHris! And I wish a great 2029 to everyone still reading this!