SD (90-72) vs COL (96-66)
Season Series: SD 3 – COL 3
This appears to be a classic good pitching vs good hitting matchup. But if you look closer both of these teams were built for their respective stadiums. SD has some top rotation arms (Campusano and Morales) that have benefited from Petco Stadium, as their away ERA is almost twice their home ERA. Their bats are heavily reliant on homeruns which has hurt them. COL has almost the exact opposite home/away splits for their pitchers, but their team is built to hit with a good balance of contact, baserunning, and timely power.
How each team can advance:
SD – This series is going to be a high-scoring affair, they will need players like LF Ryder Green to come up with some big hits if they have any chance of advancing.
COL – The key will be for COL to put SD away in 2 games on the backs of Dabon & May who have both pitched well against SD. The concern is Mize if it gets to game 3 as he has struggled against a homerun happy SD lineup.
Prediction: COL over SD in 2 – I think COL top arms will be able to keep SD off the board enough for their offense to come through. But if this does come to game 3…it will be a tight one.
STL (86-77) vs ARI (94-68)
Season Series: STL 4 – ARI 3
This has been a wildly successful season by ARI that few could have seen coming. They exceeded their expected win-loss record of the prior 2 seasons combined! They are a team that is built to outslug the opponent, ranking 1st in offense but also 12th in runs allowed. They are also a juggernaut at home, posting a .679 winning % vs .481 on the road. STL on the other hand has struggled this season but gone 10-2 in their last 12 games, and you know what they say about the hot team in October. They are led by a dominant top of the rotation and a middling offense. But you also know what they say about top starting pitching in October…
How each team can advance:
STL – For STL this will come down to starting pitching. They will need Rosario, Attene, and Rocker to shut down the ARI offense and keep them in the ballpark if they want to advance.
ARI – They need their SP to keep them in the game. Facing some top arms they will need the pitching and defense to keep STL from scoring early or this series could flip quickly.
Prediction: STL over ARI in 3 – I’m going with my heart over my head in this one. STL has struggled on the road and underperformed most of the year. But I like their chances getting hot at the right time and anytime Attene, Rosario, and Rocker are the SP, you have a good chance to win. This could be a sneaky tough out in the playoffs. But, don’t count out this deadly ARI offense either. Should be a fun series!
TEX (83-79) vs NYY (90-72)
Season Series: TEX 5 – NYY 2
This has been a long time coming for the Yankees who haven’t made the playoffs since 2019! But for a majority of the year this was a team nobody wanted to face, going 69-41 May through August. They have a fairly balanced team, that outside of a dominant closer and all-star LF, is made up of a lot of solid but not superstar talent. TEX on the other hand has flirted around .500 record for the entire year, finally securing a playoff birth a day before the season ended. LF Trammell and RF Smith did all the heavy lifting for an above average offense that carried a rotation ranked 15th in the league.
How each team can win:
TEX – They will need Smith & Trammell to continue to carry this offense and hope that the SP can give them some quality starts.
NYY – The scary part of a team that has no superstars yet wins 90 games is the amount of ways they can beat you. They are hoping on some quality starts from the SP and hopefully getting the lead to Diaz to close it out. This offense is predicated on homeruns, they will need Lala, Busby, and Gorman to show up here in October.
Prediction: NYY over TEX in 3 – I think this will be a high scoring close series, but ultimately TEX is a 29-52 record on the road and I do not trust the SP enough to advance in this series.
TB (87-75) vs BAL (89-73)
Season Series: TB 3 – BAL 4
These are 2 very evenly matched teams, one that relies on scoring runs and a solid BP (BAL) and one that relies on SP and scoring just enough runs by getting on base and timely hitting (TB). This series will come down to BAL offense vs TB SP. BAL SP Daza, Duensing, and Puga had some success against TB while Oregel, Aguirre, and Pena struggled, so I will be curious who BAL throws out there. BAL RF Moncada will also be someone to keep an eye on, he put up a .875 slugging % against TB this year. If TB starters can go deep and only rely on the bullpen for 1-2 innings while scoring 4 runs they should have a good shot of winning the series.
How each team can win:
TB – They should have a clear advantage with Carillo on the mound in game 1 who not only dominated the league but shut down BAL offense in 2 starts. Then they just need to win behind one of Breedy or McKay starts, they will live or die on those 3 players.
BAL - They are going to need to score early vs TB SP to win this series. If they can knock out the SP early, they have a clear advantage in the BP. So score early and often is their path to winning.
Prediction: TB over BAL in 3 – This was a toss up for me. It’s easy to see TB taking game 1 behind Carillo, but after that, I think the advantage swings back to BAL at home. This should be a very close series, but I think TB SP will do just enough to keep BAL from advancing.