STL (86-77) vs ATL (98-64)
Season Series: STL 6 – ATL 13
Nothing like division rivals battling it out in a 5 games series! Although ATL has dominated the season series, STL does have some solid arms and enough bats to make it a tough series. STL was able to outslug the #1 offense in ARI in the WC round, they will have to do the same to move on to the Championship Series. ATL coming off a 98 win season in which they boasted a top rotation, solid offense, and some good defense to back them up.
Why STL will win: STL outscored the top offense in the NL without major contributions from its best hitter – Cates. Also SP Rocker has dominated ATL in the season series, if he can pitch twice that will give them a fighting chance.
Why STL will lose: The other SP for STL has struggled against ATL this season. While they have a solid offense, ATL is probably more balanced while also boasting the better arms.
Why ATL will win: They boast the #1 SP ERA in the league, the #4 offense in the league, and a solid defense. They won 98 games in a tough division and took care of STL this season. This is a team that is dangerous in the playoffs.
Why ATL will lose: The bullpen. ATL is currently pining for postseason games to be shortened to 7 innings, or so I heard. As good as their SP has been all year, the bullpen ranks #9 in the league, with CL Yankosky boasting a 5.27 ERA. Look for ATL to jump to early leads and bite their nails to the finish line.
Prediction: ATL over STL in 4 – I like this ATL rotation too much to pick against them combined with a dangerously balanced offense. But look for STL to conjure some late inning magic against this ATL bullpen.
COL (96-66) vs SF (98-64)
Season Series: COL 3 – SF 4
This should be a fun series. Not only are these teams very close record wise, they boast the most opposite ballparks in the league. COL ranked #2 in runs scored and #13 in runs allowed, SF #7 in runs scored and #1 in runs allowed. Who can better mitigate their weaknesses and play to their strengths?
Why COL will win: While COL may not rank highly in the runs allowed, they do have a few very solid SP in Dabon and May, and their offense is not lacking. If Dabon can pitch 2 solid games against them, and Mize (who had 8.1 scoreless IP against SF this year) can pick up a solid outing they have a very good chance to take this series.
Why COL will lose: While COL is a very dangerous team at home, their offense has not been the same on the road. While they took 3 out of 4 at home against SF, they struggled to score while in SF getting swept and only scoring 6 runs (5 of them in 1 game).
Why SF will win: Pitching and defense, and maybe some timely hitting. While ranked #1 in runs allowed in the league, they are not very top heavy rotation wise, but boasting maybe the deepest rotation in the league. The offense is built to get on base and score from good baserunning and XBH. They also boast a very solid and deep bullpen. I would not be surprised to see SF shut down the COL offense while at Oracle Park.
Why SF will lose: Offense. While over a full season the offense can put up league average stats, in a short series it is prone to going cold. As mentioned earlier, they lost 3 out of 4 in COL. They don’t have the same firepower to win a 8-7 game. This SF team may be the most streaky team in the ML. These are their win % by month: .333, .785, .500, .480, .740, .615.
Prediction: SF over COL in 5 – I see both teams winning all their home games. Teams in COL and SF must build around their stadiums, and both teams have done that well. The problem is it may not translate to success on the road. Home field advantage gives the edge here to SF.
NYY (90-72) vs OAK (95-67)
Season Series: NYY 2 – OAK 4
Pitting a team that relies on HR to score (NYY #3 in league) against a team that does not let up HR (OAK ranked #1 in the league in HR allowed). NYY will throw out some SP that should keep them in the game (Layne, Haines, Releford) and an underrated bullpen that is not deep but strong in the back innings. Meanwhile OAK boasts a top 5 offense (that hits a surprisingly lot of HR) and pitching backed by a league average defense. OAK also has a dangerous back end of bullpen to match NYY.
Why NYY will win: Guys like Busby, Torres, Gorman, and Lala make ball go boom. Those guys lead them to a series win against TEX and will be needed to outslug OAK to move on. If they can jump on the OAK SP early, they should have the bullpen to keep the lead.
Why NYY will lose: The SP is not dominant, and hitting homeruns at the Coliseum is difficult. I struggle to see NYY outslugging OAK especially in OAK, and the OAK rotation is solid enough to make life difficult for NYY.
Why OAK will win: Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. If OAK wins it will be because these 2 players showed up and hit. Their rotation and back end bullpen is solid enough that if those 2 guys can hit, they should carry them to a series victory.
Why OAK will lose: Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. If you look at prior years, one or both failed to hit and was too much to overcome for a team that relies on its big hitters. While they boast an above average pitching staff, they only have 1 other hitter that exceeded a .754 OPS besides the big 2.
Prediction: OAK over NYY in 4 – I think Soto and Tatis finally get their moment and lead them to the Championship Series. But I do think this is a closer matchup than what first appears because of OAK’s reliance on those two hitters.
BAL (89-73) vs LAA (103-59)
Season Series: BAL 2 – LAA 5
The last 3 AL Champions have been won by these teams. Both teams have had postseason success and the winner should feel good about their chances of advancing to the World Series. BAL brings a solid well balance offense that ranks 6th or better in every offensive category except SB. They also throw out 3 solid SP in Oregel, Puga, Daza and a dominant CL. LAA meanwhile is on another planet, ranking #1 in runs scored AND #1 in runs allowed in the league. And that is no fluke as the advanced stats back up those rankings. Winning 3 games against SP Rodriguez, Milligan, and McGuire is going to be a tough task with CL Boadas closing.
Why BAL will win: Their SP outduel LAA getting an early lead and riding their bullpen to close wins. They need their SP to keep them in the game and their offense to jump on LAA early. They have plenty of contributors on offense who could play the hero.
Why BAL will lose: BAL will have a tall task trying to hit off that rotation in BP LAA has. Combine that with LAA top ranked offense, it will take a near perfect series for BAL to take 3 games.
Why LAA will win: This team is balanced, deep, and built for the playoffs. Top SP in the rotation, check. Dominant bullpen, check. Offense that consistently gets hits and gets on base, check. Offense that can hit HR in bunches and win high scoring games, check. This team has what it takes to make yet another deep run in the playoffs.
Why LAA will lose: SP Milligan and McGuire struggled against BAL in limited innings this season. If BAL can jump to early leads they could make it difficult to score late with a solid bullpen. I imagine the team with the early lead will win most often.
Prediction: LAA over BAL in 4 – I think this LAA rotation and lineup is going to be tough for any team to overcome these playoffs, but in a 5 game series anything can happen. Whoever wins this series has to feel good about their chance of going all the way this year.