ATL (98-64) vs SF (98-64)
Season Series: SF 4 – ATL 2
The first two seeds in the NL matchup in a great Championship Series that happens to be a rematch of last year’s CS where ATL went on to win it all. Can ATL repeat as champions? Or will SF make their mark in the playoffs after winning the Champion Division two years in a row?
SP Comparison: These are the top 2 teams in NL ERA this year matching up. ATL top 3 in Caprio, Patino, Montalvo are as good as any other pitchers in the NL. While SF boasts a rotation of Kopech, Malone, and Paulino as their top 3. While these rotations are very close to a push, I give the edge to ATL who boasts Carpio as the probable Cy Young in the NL.
Edge - ATL
RP Comparison: The clear edge here goes to SF who boasts the #1 bullpen ERA in NL with a deep back end and plenty of long relievers who can give quality middle innings if the SPs falter. ATL meanwhile has struggled with a 3.89 bullpen ERA. While CL Yankosky is better than his 5.27 ERA would indicate, they don’t have too many arms they trust coming out of the pen.
Edge – SF
Hitting Comparison: ATL has a solid lineup that has consistent production all down the lineup. They ranked #4 in runs scored, averaging 4.78 runs/game, despite no individual players putting up a big year. SF meanwhile struggled the first half of the year on offense before trading for some big additions in Seager, McCarthy, and Bregman. They ranked #7 in runs scored for the whole year, but they averaged 4.34 runs/game through July. From August 1-end of the year they average 5.14 runs/game. I think this is close to a push, but I will give the edge to ATL who is more consistent at getting base hits and hitting the long ball.
Slight Edge – ATL
Defense Comparison: ATL is a very solid team on defense that ranked #5 in efficiency as well as ZR. But that doesn’t tell the whole story with a gold glove caliber players up the middle in Corral, Nixon, and Rael. SF however ranked #1 in efficiency and #2 in ZR in the league. Backed by one of the best defenders to ever play in SS Lindor. They boast well above average defense at almost every single position.
Edge – SF
Key for ATL: It starts and ends with their starting pitching. They do not want SF to see their bullpen before the 7th or even 8th inning. They are going to need their rotation to go deep into games and keep SF off the base baths. It will also be important for ATL to take the lead early and not rely on scoring against the SF bullpen.
Key for SF: Grinding out the ATL starting pitching. SF tends to get a lot of baserunners due to walks (#1 in the league) and knock out starting pitching earlier than is typical in a game. They will be trying to get to that ATL bullpen as early in the game as possible. And they will need those big hits from their offense when they have runners on base.
Prediction: This is going to be a fun, close, grueling series. I would expect a lot of low scoring games with this premium on pitching. Ultimately, I think Carpio pitching in 2 games and ATL hitter’s consistency will be the difference in the series.
ATL over SF in 6
BAL (89-73) vs NYY (90-72)
Season Series: BAL 4 – NYY 2
Old bitter rivals dueling it out in a best of 7 series, this is what baseball is all about! One of these teams feels like a team of destiny, both teams having swept out 95+ win teams in the Division Series. Which team is it? The Orioles who won the series just 2 years ago and looking to establish a dynasty? Or the drought starved Yankees who haven’t even been to the playoffs since 2019? (Side note, I find it hilarious I am talking about an Orioles dynasty and a Yankees drought, OOTP right?!?)
SP Comparison: Neither of these teams boast a rotation that strikes fear into the opposition, but seem to put up solid numbers and generally keep their team in the game. While NYY had the slight edge in season SP ERA (4.54 to 4.60), I am going to give the nod to BAL who has Oregel (probably the best SP in the series) and Puga who have both been dominant this postseason.
Edge – BAL
RP Comparison: BAL ranked #3 in BP ERA this year while NYY had a league average bullpen ranked 8th. But what really matters is the back-end guys, where NYY has CL Diaz and 2 solid setup guys in Abreu and Leftwich. BAL has their own solid guys in Carter, Pizana, and Martinez. Neither team should feel great about having to cover more than 3 innings in a game with their bullpen, but I do think NYY have a little more stability in those late innings.
Slight Edge – NYY
Hitting Comparison: While these teams were ranked #4 and #5 in runs scored this season, they got there in different ways. NYY rode 1B Busby, 3B Gorman, 2B Torres, and CF Lala the whole season and through the postseason with lots of walks and homeruns. BAL meanwhile ranked #1 in BA and only #6 in HR. And while the BAL lineup does have some top hitters (LF Moncada, RF Hays), most of their lineup is productive and is not dependent on a few hitters. Both teams have very capable offenses that can play with anyone, but I am going to give the edge to BAL who right now is on fire, clobbering the #1 ranked pitching team with 27 runs in 3 games!
Slight Edge – BAL
Defense Comparison: Both these teams rely on outslugging their defensive shortcomings, as both teams are ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in efficiency and ZR (BAL ranking dead last here). While BAL does have a good defensive CF in Frelick, they more than make up for it at SS and pretty much everyone else. NYY was primarily drug down by CF and SS, and actually had the best ZR for pitchers in the league! This was really a choice of which team is less bad, and my advise is to just close your eyes when your team is on defense.
Slight Edge – BAL and anyone who doesn’t have to watch these teams play defense
Key for BAL: We know BAL can hit, it will be up to their starters not named Oregel to continue to keep them in the game and the Yankee hitters in the ballpark. Although if they can mash 27 runs in 3 games against the best pitching in the league, imagine what they could do to the Yankees staff…
Key for NYY: They will need to keep riding their big bats and hope to outslug BAL in the series. Their SP has held up so far in the post season, but this will likely be their biggest test yet.
Prediction: BAL has no chance of winning. You hear me Zach? No chance. Okay, kidding aside I actually think this matchup favors BAL and they have the season series advantage as well. I can’t see NYY pitching stopping the BAL offense and the BAL pitching should give them enough to make it to the World Series. But these teams are very similar and evenly matched, so nothing would surprise me.
BAL over NYY in 5