2029 WORLD SERIES!
Featuring the last 2 champions in ATL and BAL! ATL is looking to be the first team with back-to-back titles since the famous 1998-2000 Yankees, almost 30 years ago! They clearly know how to navigate the pressure and big stage only makes them play better. However, BAL is back after a down 2028 season in which they only won 70 games. After defeating the Dodgers in 2027 they are looking to prove that was no fluke championship, and they are here to stay. And boy do they look like a team of destiny…
ATL:
98-64 record with a +133 run differential
Offensive Profile: Consistent. This team is top 5 in almost every offensive category (except walks and homeruns). There are no superstar hitters to carry this team, but that also means when one hitter has a bad game the rest of the lineup picks him up. And SunTrust Park limits homeruns, they still had 6 guys with 20 or more homeruns. This team can hit with most in the league.
SP Profile: 1st in SP ERA and 3rd in runs allowed. Anchored by NL Cy Young favorite Luis Carpio, and followed by front of the rotation starters in Montalvo and Patino, this is not a rotation you want to face in a short series. Even Luna who flirts between ace and back-end starter can shut down a good offense.
RP Profile: 3.89 ERA which ranked 9th in the league. Despite lacking consistency for the regular season, the ATL bullpen seems to have found their grove in the postseason. Outside of a meltdown in game 5 of the CS, they have put up a 1.50 ERA in the playoffs. But as shown in that game 5, no lead is safe.
Biggest Strength: Starting pitching. Cliches like “pitching wins championships” and “good pitching trumps good hitting” are an adage for a reason, and when Carpio, Montalvo, and Patino are on their game, I’m not sure there is an offense that can score more than 2 runs against them.
Biggest Weakness: Patience. While this is a good offense, they do not take pitches or walks typically allowing opposing starters to remain in the game as long as they are effective. That is usually not too much an issue, but when you are facing a good pitcher and need into the bullpen, it can hurt you in a short series.
Key Pitcher for the Series: CL Yankowsky. If ATL can get an early lead it will be a race to the finish line. With this shaky bullpen, and BAL’s propensity for scoring late, it will be imperative for ATL to close out the close games.
Key Hitter for the Series: LF Bitsko, they need him to continue to stay hot and drive in runs from the guys atop the order. So far, his slash line this postseason is .361/.465/.639 with 2 doubles, 1 triple, and 2 homeruns.
BAL:
89-73 record with a +95 run differential
Offensive Profile: Consistent and dangerous, and right now they are hotter than Megan Fox in Transformers. They have scored 83 runs in 12 games (7 runs/game!) this postseason including famously lighting up the incredible LAA pitching staff. They rank 1st in hits and OBP, and 2nd in SLG & OPS, so this team hits, and usually hard.
SP Profile: Despite ranking 8th in SP ERA, they have a legit front of the rotation starter in Oregel and a couple guys who can usually keep you in the ball game in Puga and Daza (has a 2.61 ERA in the playoffs). These starters do not go deep in the game however, typically not finishing the 6th inning.
RP Profile: Their BP ERA was 3.38 which ranked 3rd in the league. They had a lot of long relief guys out of the bullpen who had good years to pick up the innings that the starters couldn’t. And although this bullpen is typically solid, they have blown some saves already this postseason, and there are more a lot of solid arms than some dominant back-end closers, though Carter is a solid guy at the end. Keep an eye on leads late in the game.
Biggest Strength: Ability to hit for XBH. Although Camden is known for their propensity for homeruns, this team hits a lot more doubles than they do homeruns. While that seems strange for a strength, SunTrust Park is homerun stingy. These BAL hitters should have no problem translating their offense on the road in ATL.
Biggest Weakness: Defense. While they are strong in CF, this is otherwise a well below average defense across the board, ranking dead last in ZR in the league. With the ATL offense putting a lot of balls in play, this could be fatal in the series for this BAL team.
Key Pitcher in the Series: I imagine it is going to be Carpio vs Oregel in games 1 & 5, it will be crucial for Oregel to keep them in the game and hope to hit the ATL bullpen in those games.
Key Hitter in the Series: Jim Parrish. You thought Bitsko’s batting line in the post season was impressive? Parrish had a total of 17 regular PA’s in the ML this year, and now 49 in the postseason. His numbers? .413/.449/1.000 with 3 doubles, 8! Homeruns, 18 RBIs, all in 10 games. He has been worth 1.2 WAR in those 10 games. If you extrapolate his numbers for a full 162 games? He would be worth 19.44 WAR and hit 129 homeruns. Okay, I know I’m getting carried away…but if this guy is around to stay, good luck AL pitchers!
Comparison:
Offensive Advantage: These offenses are very even matched and similar profiles. While ATL put up those numbers in a pitcher friendly park, this Orioles offense right now is unstoppable.
Slight Edge – BAL
SP Advantage: While BAL does have a solid couple starters for a 7 game series, this ATL is stronger and deeper.
Edge – ATL
RP Advantage: Neither team has a lock down back-end, but that being said this BAL staff has pitched well in a lot of innings in the regular season. While they run the danger of more innings and more exposure, I’m leaning BAL in this one.
Slight Edge – BAL
Defensive Advantage: This ATL team is above average in defense, but really solid up the middle at SS and CF. In a series with lot of offense and base hits, this will be something to watch.
Edge – ATL
Summary: These are two great teams with a history of postseason pedigree. While ATL had the better regular season, this BAL team is showing that they are capable of playing and beating anyone in a series right now. I think the difference will come down to bullpens and defense.
Prediction: ATL over BAL in 6
While I think BAL has the slight edge in a couple categories, I do think this ATL team has bigger advantages with the starting pitching and defense. But there is something about this BAL team, you just gotta believe…