AL Tertiary Division Preview

[Chris_SFG]

AL Tertiary Division

Teams that left the division: TB+, NYY+
Teams that joined the division: DET-, CHI-

Houston Astros:
2029 Review:
HOU lost 101 games last year with a negative 166 run differential, both worst in baseball. They ranked last in runs scored and bottom third in runs allowed in the AL.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: 2B Javier, RF Rivera, SP Langone all hit FA this offseason, but none contributed more than 0.75 WAR last season so I can’t imagine any of them will be missed.
Players Acquired: HOU signed 2 SP in Medina and Dominguez, both of whom arguably underperformed the past couple seasons. They also claimed SS Minier off waivers (they were not the only ones), who put up 3.8 WAR just a season removed.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: I really like C Becker. While he had a disappointing rookie campaign I would look for him to quickly become an above average catcher in the league.
Pitcher to Watch: I would like to pick SP Tyner again after missing most of 2029 season with an injury. I will pick newly signed Dominguez who has only had a full season as a starter twice in the big leagues, once being his rookie season. Dominiguez will be relied upon as the #2 starter in that rotation.
Expectation: While they did add 2 reliable SP to their rotation, in addition to getting Tyner back they really haven’t done much to improve a team that was last in runs scored last year. Outside of getting Soto back from injury and some untapped potential in C Becker, I do not see much upside to this offense. Unfortunately the rebuild in HOU continues as I think it is more likely they lose 100 games again than break a .500 record.

Chicago White Sox:
2029 Review:
Had a 70-92 record that got them demoted to the Tertiary Division. They ranked 14th in the league in runs scored. They ranked 7th in runs allowed, but 11th in SP ERA and 2nd in Bullpen ERA, and 3rd in fielding ZR.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: SP Labas, who was a solid rotation piece for them, hit FA along with a few other supplement players they will likely not miss.
Players Acquired: CHI has yet to add anybody to their ML roster this offseason.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 1B Acevedo should be up at the big leagues sometime in 2030 and provide above average production to a lineup that badly needs some juice.
Pitcher to Watch: Last year I spotlighted Bash and Axelrod, but only Axelrod contributed at the big leagues in a solid rookie campaign. While Bash should be up at the big leagues as well this year, Poliziano is the guy to watch. #1 prospect in baseball and has dominated in the minors. CHI could have the best 1-3 SP punch in baseball very soon.
Expectation: While they have not added any talent from the outside, they have some very talented players that should be coming up to contribute this season. The aforementioned Bash, Poliziano, and Acevedo, but also players like 1B Crawford, CF Arriaga, 1B Wagoner also have the potential to provide some production to a lineup that struggled last year. It is hard to create an expectation for this team as a lot will depend on how aggressive the GM is promoting these players and how well they do in rookie campaigns. While I think they fall short of a .500 record this season, this team will be contending sooner than most realize.

Minnesota Twins:
2029 Review:
MIN lost 89 games last season, finishing 10th in runs scored and 13th in runs allowed in the league.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: 1B Davis had a career season in 2029 and hit FA along with SP Canterino who was a back-end SP.
Players Acquired: MIN has acquired no big leagues players outside of 2 minor waiver claims.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 3B Garza had the highest OPS amongst remining Twins last season. In half a season he put up 2 WAR and a .832 OPS with above average defense. MIN would love to see him replicate that over a full season and establish himself as a 3B cornerstone.
Pitcher to Watch: RP O’Donnell has struggled in his first 2 years in the big leagues, but this guy has the talent to be a dominant closer in the league for a long time. MIN will give him every opportunity to unlock his talent potential.
Expectation: MIN is still clearly in the rebuild. While they do have some young talent starting to come up it will likely be a few years until they put together a contending team. A .500 record would be a successful season for MIN, but I would expect more like 65-75 win season.

Detroit Tigers:
2029 Review:
DET lost 101 games last year, ranking 13th and 14th in runs scored and allowed respectively, which had them demoted to the Tertiary Division.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: DET lost a solid SP in Avila and some mid BP guys in Holmes & Vizcaino.
Players Acquired: DET has not added any players via FA or trade, but they did make 4 Rule 5 picks. The most notable player is SP Gallegos from CLE.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: CF Pena had his first full season in the big leagues last year and put up a .908OPS and 3 WAR season in 403 PAs. DET would love to see him become their cornerstone CF.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Gallegos was a top prospect in baseball taken in the Rule 5 from CLE. Gallegos has a high ceiling as a #1-2 SP.
Expectation: DET will benefit from a drop in quality competition going from the Champion Division down to the Tertiary Division. That said I would be surprised to see this team go over .500 record this season. My guess is the 70-80 win range.

Cleveland Guardians:
2029 Review:
CLE had a .500 record last season but that was enough to win the Tertiary Division. They may have overachieved last year with a -39 run differential, with an average offense (ranked 7th) and bottom pitching ranking 12th in SP & BP ERA.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: CLE lost 3B Smith, who has not had a good 2 years in CLE, along with 2 MR in Kuria and Pressly all to FA. CLE traded swingman SP Cardwell to BOS for a young reliever with electric stuff. And last they traded C Espinoza to SEA for SP Powers.
Players Acquired: As noted above they received top of the rotation SP Powers from SEA. They also signed C Rothenberg to upgrade their starting catching.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 1B Rivera who finished top 4 in MVP voting this past season. I do not think even CLE knew he had a .300 BA 59 HR 6.1 WAR season in him. Can he replicate that and cement himself amongst the top players in the AL?
Pitcher to Watch: RP Alvarado is a top prospect in baseball. Although CLE has a lot of young arms with mid-rotation potential, Alvarado could become more valuable than any of them in a stopper role with absolutely shut-down stuff.
Expectation: I like their plan with SP, combining experienced guys like Chavira and Powers with a lot of youngsters and see who performs. They have some strong young bullpen arms but not much depth. On the offensive side they are bringing all the power back, but are hoping 3B Pantoja can fill Smith’s shoes and throwing an assortment of catchers to fill Espinoza’s role. As these young players continue to develop this team should get better. Although I think they over performed last year, I do think they will take a step forward and win 80-90 wins in a division of rebuilding clubs.
Summary: A lot of these teams are rebuilding, either giving playing time to young players to develop, or watching aging stars fade out. I would expect CLE to win this division again, but I do think DET or CHI could compete if everything breaks their way and CLE stumbles. It looks like HOU & MIN continue to rebuild and likely will not compete this season. As expected this is not a particularly strong division, but that only creates more unpredictability amongst the teams.

For the GMs of the AL Tertiary Division:

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?

What is your record prediction for your team this season?

Who is the most underrated player on your club?

What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?

Who wins the AL Tertiary division this year?

[Sean Guardians]

Our biggest weakness heading into this offseason was definitely our pitching. we set out to address this by acquiring an all star starter Sam Powers from Seattle and a young closer in Eli Hitchcock from Boston. Unfortunately losing Gallegos in the Rule 5 took away a promising young arm from our organization, but I like the changes we made to our staff, combined with the continued development of guys like Juan Chavira, Mike Harris, and Jorge Loera.

I am bullish on our chances this year. We looked much improved last season, finishing 81-81, but I feel we will take a big step forward this upcoming season. I am hoping for 88-92 wins and the division this year.

The most underrated player on our club has to be Ian Clampitt. He is a rising young slugger who had a .935 OPS and 26 HR in just 312 at bats last season, and we are hoping he can do that in a full time role this season.

For 2029 to be successful, I think e need to make the playoffs, or at least be over .500.

I think we have an excellent shot at winning this division, but I could see Detroit as a dark horse contender if all breaks right.

[krispal2000]

As pointed out our biggest weaknesses were scoring too few runs and allowing too many. Unfortunately, it's only possible to address one of those at once. We've added two new starters and I feel we have a fairly decent rotation now. The bullpen looks really strong with a couple of players who can transition into the rotation if needed because of injuries or poor form. We look to have fairly solid defence in the infield with the addition of Minier at SS (from waivers) and Soto shifting to 2nd and hopefully staying healthy. The outfield also looks strong with Cisneros, Alberts and Gavilan all having gloves worthy of centre field.

We're still in rebuilding mode but solid pitching and strong defence might win us more games than predicted. .500 ball would be ideal. Just not sure where those runs come from to get us there.

Steve Williams came in and was a really solid starter for us finishing with an ERA of 3.31 from 20 starts. Or, Billy Deal might be the dark horse to drive in those much needed runs.

A .500 season would be a massive success for us. But, the draft is probably where our real long term success lies.

Almost certainly not contenders for the division but we might surprise and upset some people along the way. That'll do for me.

[ragator]

We certainly agree with Chris regarding the White Sox overall. Our season will rest heavily on how some newcomers adapt to the bigs. Poliziano and Bash will most certainly make their ML debut, in all likelihood straight out of ST. We're expecting the young trio of Poliziano, Axelrod and Bash to front our rotation for many seasons to come. The support pitching staff look pretty good, therefore anticipating pitching to be a strength.

We have made one tweak in our infield by moving Noah Smith into the SS role and Captain Mac Horvath to 2B, thereby having our 80 defensive wizard Smith to man the key infield position. In the OF Alex Greene will take over the RF spot. We anticipate our backups will provide better depth and hitting assist than in past seasons.

Our expectations are to compete for the division title this season. Obviously a good bit of that rests on new blood producing at least close to it's potential and solid veterans continuing to improve during their prime years.