AL Professional Division Preview
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:02 pm
AL Professional Division
Teams that left the division: CHI-, OAK+, BAL+
Teams that joined the division: NYY+, TB+, SEA-
Seattle Mariners:
2029 Review:
SEA finished with a 79-83 record, 11th in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: SEA had some big turnover this offseason, starting with SP Powers who had an excellent rookie campaign. They also let OF McClain and SS Chapman hit FA, who is more of a name than great player going into his age 37 season. Last they lost SS Minier on waivers, and although he had a down season last year, he is only 1 season removed from a 3.8 WAR season.
Players Acquired: For a team that ranked 5th in HRs last year they added some more pop to the lineup. They signed LF Hinds who they are hoping continues to hit away from Coors, and acquired a couple of bounce back candidates in C Espinoza just 1 season removed from a 3.4 WAR season and is only signed for one year, and 1B Hoskins who was consistently a 3 WAR player for most of his career. They also signed some talented relievers in Gomez and Jimenez.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: Lot of players with upside on this team, but I will focus on 3B Carlson who has a career .710 OPS despite having plus plus power and plus contact. While he will not walk much, he should have an OPS closer to .900 with plus defense, he could have 5 WAR potential and is still only 25 years old.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Wangerin was one of the rookie starters that debuted last year, but he did not have near the seasons Patterson and Powers did, with a 5.45 FIP. Most of that was due to a career high 2.0 HR/9. I am looking for that number to drop and put closer to mid-rotation stats.
Expectation: This is a high upside team with a large variation of outcomes. I would not be shocked by a 95 win season or another just below .500 season. So I will go with the boring answer of a 83-88 win season that should compete for the division.
Boston Red Sox:
2029 Review:
BOS finished with a 82-80 record, ranking 6th in runs scored and 5th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: BOS lost a lot of contributors from last season for various reasons. They let 3B Arenado, SP Mata, RF Guzman, and SP Stills all hit FA combining for a 7.4 WAR lost. They also released LF Fairchild who put up .875 OPS last season for them.
Players Acquired: BOS signed 4 major players this offseason, old friend Mookie Betts, SP McClanahan, SP Buehler, and C Murphy. All are low risk 1 year deals, some with options. They also traded for some relievers in Cardwell and Baker.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: It appears BOS is relying on 3B Witt to be the everyday starter in 2030. In his shortened debut season last year he put up .818 OPS and 2.6 ZR. While I think it is unrealistic to expect those offensive stats to continue he will be looking to provide bottom of the lineup offense along with his plus defense.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Montero burst on the scene with MIA putting up a 2.92 ERA and 5.1 WAR in his rookie season. He struggled in only 16 starts the next season before being traded to BOS and spotting a 6.34 ERA in 76 IP. He is looking to put the past 2 season behind him and get back to his rookie numbers. Montero will have a large say on how good this BOS rotation is in 2030.
Expectation: BOS will replace LF Fairchild and Guzman with Betts and couple of internal candidates. SP Buehler and McClanahan should replace the production from Stills and Mata with some upside. The big loss comes from 3B Arenado to Witt, although they did upgrade at C with Murphy. All in all I don’t see too much change for BOS this year, I would expect a 83-88 win season and competing for the division.
Texas Rangers:
2029 Review:
TEX went 83-79 last season ranking 3rd in runs scored and last in runs allowed in the league.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: A big trade was made this offseason with SF that will define TEX this year. They traded away LF Trammell and SS Rodriguez to SF, and let Ohtani and C Bart hit FA. It is a lot of offense they lost and are looking to replace internally.
Players Acquired: In the big trade with SF they acquired a big game SP in Kopech who had an excellent past 5 years in SF, sporting a 3.10 ERA and was worth 22.1 WAR in those 5 seasons. They also signed SP Santana who has been a solid 1.5-2 WAR pitcher for most of his career. As much as they lost in the offensive category, they gained 2 desperately needed starting pitchers who should help the rotation.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: OF Reynolds is a 5 tools prospect who was the 45th ranked prospect last season. He had a strong debut in 2029 and will look to build on that and be a cornerstone on this TEX team.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Kopech has looked like an ace in SF benefitting from Oracle Park, it will be paramount to TEX for him to continue to dominant in a much more hitter friendly park.
Expectation: TEX replaces Trammell with a full season from Reynolds, Otani with Santana. They dramatically improved their rotation with Kopech as an anchor, but C and SS look to take a hit. I think this team is marginally better than last year. And if the rotation and middle infield play up to their capability this team could compete for the division. My guess is a 83-88 win season for TEX in 2030.
Tampa Bay Rays:
2029 Review:
TB went 87-75 last year getting promoted to the Professional Division. They ranked 10th in runs scored and 3rd in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: TB lost SP Puk, LF Winker, and some middle infielders to FA – 2B Gordon, SS Reyes, and 3B Jung. They totaled to equal 11.3 WAR last season.
Players Acquired: They did make some major FA signings to replace those players though. SPs Quijada and Florez, LF Hassell, and middle infielders 1B Bell, 2B Senzel, and 3B Ramirez all look to replace the players they lost.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: LF Keller had a solid rookie campaign with a .817 OPS and 20 homeruns in 400 ABs. TB will be looking for him to help improve their bottom offense from last year.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Donovan will very likely start the year in AAA since it looks like the rotation is set with seasoned veterans. But at some point this season they will likely need reinforcements between injuries/performance, and he looks like he should slot right in as a mid-rotation starter.
Expectation: The SP rotation is very solid and has plenty of depth in AAA, pitching will not be what holds this team back. C and SS are still likely weaknesses, they will need OF and corner IF to carry the offense. While the floor is fairly high on this team due to the pitching, the ceiling is limited by the lack of offense. I would guess a record close to last year which should have them competing for the division.
New York Yankees:
2029 Review:
NYY went 90-72 last year winning the division and earning a promotion to the Professional Division. They ranked 5th in runs scored and 7th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: NYY lost SP Layne, RP German, and 1B Wyatt to FA.
Players Acquired: They traded for SP Avila to replace Layne and signed RF Beck.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: LF Coons is the #84 prospect in baseball. There is a chance he starts in AAA but he will very likely make his debut this year and he should provide some offense, especially OBP.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Avila has not pitched in the rotation for a full season since 2026. Since he is replacing SP Layne he will be worth keeping an eye on if he can handle a full season in the rotation again.
Expectation: NYY is running back mostly the same team as last year that earned them 90 wins, however the competition will be more difficult this year. I think 85-90 wins is what I would expect from NY this season.
Summary: These are all fairly solid teams that each have a shot at winning the division. My money is on NYY as they are the most well-rounded team in the division, but it really could come down to deadline additions to win the Professional Division.
For the GMs of the AL Professional Division:
What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
What is your record prediction for your team this season?
Who is the most underrated player on your club?
What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Who wins the AL Professional division this year?
Teams that left the division: CHI-, OAK+, BAL+
Teams that joined the division: NYY+, TB+, SEA-
Seattle Mariners:
2029 Review:
SEA finished with a 79-83 record, 11th in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: SEA had some big turnover this offseason, starting with SP Powers who had an excellent rookie campaign. They also let OF McClain and SS Chapman hit FA, who is more of a name than great player going into his age 37 season. Last they lost SS Minier on waivers, and although he had a down season last year, he is only 1 season removed from a 3.8 WAR season.
Players Acquired: For a team that ranked 5th in HRs last year they added some more pop to the lineup. They signed LF Hinds who they are hoping continues to hit away from Coors, and acquired a couple of bounce back candidates in C Espinoza just 1 season removed from a 3.4 WAR season and is only signed for one year, and 1B Hoskins who was consistently a 3 WAR player for most of his career. They also signed some talented relievers in Gomez and Jimenez.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: Lot of players with upside on this team, but I will focus on 3B Carlson who has a career .710 OPS despite having plus plus power and plus contact. While he will not walk much, he should have an OPS closer to .900 with plus defense, he could have 5 WAR potential and is still only 25 years old.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Wangerin was one of the rookie starters that debuted last year, but he did not have near the seasons Patterson and Powers did, with a 5.45 FIP. Most of that was due to a career high 2.0 HR/9. I am looking for that number to drop and put closer to mid-rotation stats.
Expectation: This is a high upside team with a large variation of outcomes. I would not be shocked by a 95 win season or another just below .500 season. So I will go with the boring answer of a 83-88 win season that should compete for the division.
Boston Red Sox:
2029 Review:
BOS finished with a 82-80 record, ranking 6th in runs scored and 5th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: BOS lost a lot of contributors from last season for various reasons. They let 3B Arenado, SP Mata, RF Guzman, and SP Stills all hit FA combining for a 7.4 WAR lost. They also released LF Fairchild who put up .875 OPS last season for them.
Players Acquired: BOS signed 4 major players this offseason, old friend Mookie Betts, SP McClanahan, SP Buehler, and C Murphy. All are low risk 1 year deals, some with options. They also traded for some relievers in Cardwell and Baker.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: It appears BOS is relying on 3B Witt to be the everyday starter in 2030. In his shortened debut season last year he put up .818 OPS and 2.6 ZR. While I think it is unrealistic to expect those offensive stats to continue he will be looking to provide bottom of the lineup offense along with his plus defense.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Montero burst on the scene with MIA putting up a 2.92 ERA and 5.1 WAR in his rookie season. He struggled in only 16 starts the next season before being traded to BOS and spotting a 6.34 ERA in 76 IP. He is looking to put the past 2 season behind him and get back to his rookie numbers. Montero will have a large say on how good this BOS rotation is in 2030.
Expectation: BOS will replace LF Fairchild and Guzman with Betts and couple of internal candidates. SP Buehler and McClanahan should replace the production from Stills and Mata with some upside. The big loss comes from 3B Arenado to Witt, although they did upgrade at C with Murphy. All in all I don’t see too much change for BOS this year, I would expect a 83-88 win season and competing for the division.
Texas Rangers:
2029 Review:
TEX went 83-79 last season ranking 3rd in runs scored and last in runs allowed in the league.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: A big trade was made this offseason with SF that will define TEX this year. They traded away LF Trammell and SS Rodriguez to SF, and let Ohtani and C Bart hit FA. It is a lot of offense they lost and are looking to replace internally.
Players Acquired: In the big trade with SF they acquired a big game SP in Kopech who had an excellent past 5 years in SF, sporting a 3.10 ERA and was worth 22.1 WAR in those 5 seasons. They also signed SP Santana who has been a solid 1.5-2 WAR pitcher for most of his career. As much as they lost in the offensive category, they gained 2 desperately needed starting pitchers who should help the rotation.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: OF Reynolds is a 5 tools prospect who was the 45th ranked prospect last season. He had a strong debut in 2029 and will look to build on that and be a cornerstone on this TEX team.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Kopech has looked like an ace in SF benefitting from Oracle Park, it will be paramount to TEX for him to continue to dominant in a much more hitter friendly park.
Expectation: TEX replaces Trammell with a full season from Reynolds, Otani with Santana. They dramatically improved their rotation with Kopech as an anchor, but C and SS look to take a hit. I think this team is marginally better than last year. And if the rotation and middle infield play up to their capability this team could compete for the division. My guess is a 83-88 win season for TEX in 2030.
Tampa Bay Rays:
2029 Review:
TB went 87-75 last year getting promoted to the Professional Division. They ranked 10th in runs scored and 3rd in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: TB lost SP Puk, LF Winker, and some middle infielders to FA – 2B Gordon, SS Reyes, and 3B Jung. They totaled to equal 11.3 WAR last season.
Players Acquired: They did make some major FA signings to replace those players though. SPs Quijada and Florez, LF Hassell, and middle infielders 1B Bell, 2B Senzel, and 3B Ramirez all look to replace the players they lost.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: LF Keller had a solid rookie campaign with a .817 OPS and 20 homeruns in 400 ABs. TB will be looking for him to help improve their bottom offense from last year.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Donovan will very likely start the year in AAA since it looks like the rotation is set with seasoned veterans. But at some point this season they will likely need reinforcements between injuries/performance, and he looks like he should slot right in as a mid-rotation starter.
Expectation: The SP rotation is very solid and has plenty of depth in AAA, pitching will not be what holds this team back. C and SS are still likely weaknesses, they will need OF and corner IF to carry the offense. While the floor is fairly high on this team due to the pitching, the ceiling is limited by the lack of offense. I would guess a record close to last year which should have them competing for the division.
New York Yankees:
2029 Review:
NYY went 90-72 last year winning the division and earning a promotion to the Professional Division. They ranked 5th in runs scored and 7th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: NYY lost SP Layne, RP German, and 1B Wyatt to FA.
Players Acquired: They traded for SP Avila to replace Layne and signed RF Beck.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: LF Coons is the #84 prospect in baseball. There is a chance he starts in AAA but he will very likely make his debut this year and he should provide some offense, especially OBP.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Avila has not pitched in the rotation for a full season since 2026. Since he is replacing SP Layne he will be worth keeping an eye on if he can handle a full season in the rotation again.
Expectation: NYY is running back mostly the same team as last year that earned them 90 wins, however the competition will be more difficult this year. I think 85-90 wins is what I would expect from NY this season.
Summary: These are all fairly solid teams that each have a shot at winning the division. My money is on NYY as they are the most well-rounded team in the division, but it really could come down to deadline additions to win the Professional Division.
For the GMs of the AL Professional Division:
What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
What is your record prediction for your team this season?
Who is the most underrated player on your club?
What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Who wins the AL Professional division this year?