AL Champion Division Preview

[Chris_SFG]

AL Champion Division

Teams that left the division: SEA-, DET-
Teams that joined the division: OAK+, BAL+,

Oakland A’s
2029 Review:
OAK won the Professional Division with a 95-67 record, ranking 2nd in runs scored and 6th in runs scored.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: If you add up the WAR of the players OAK lost it is the most by far of any team (22.5) and net WAR lost this offseason (-12.6). The list includes 2 SP (Jones & Williams), 3 RP (Zamora, Koval, Dominiquez), 4 IF (2B Gil, 1B Beer, SS Paulino, 3B Ramirez), 2 C (Jansen & Bins), and their CF Tawa.
Players Acquired: OAK did acquire some nice players to replace some of the aforementioned losses. SP May was the big signing, but they also signed C Guangorena & Rutschman, 1B Bohm, 2B Edwards, SS Baez, and CF Williams. In addition they also traded for 1B Weston, RP Arano, SP Merritt, and 1B Smith. A lot of low cost acquisitions to hopefully provide similar output to the players they lost.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 2B Edwards was signed to a cheap deal and appears to be the everyday 2B for OAK. He will look to replace Gil’s 3 WAR season last year despite not having a 1 WAR season since 2026.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Merrit was acquired with some thought that he has unreached potential yet. While spotting a 5.48 ERA so far in his big league career, he certainly has the talent to be a #1 SP in the league. OAK is hoping to unlock some of that talent to have that strong ace.
Expectation: There obviously was a lot of turnover this offseason in OAK. They lost quite a few valuable role players to FA, and most of their investment went into SP. Positions such as C, 2B, and CF could struggle this year, but the SP should be much improved with some pitchers with high potential. My guess is the void of players they lost leads to some regression for this team, I would expect closer to 87-92 wins this year which should still have them in the mix for the playoffs and maybe the division with some breaks.

Baltimore Orioles
2029 Review:
BAL finished with a 89-73 record and blew through many of the best teams (TB, LAA, NYY, ATL) in route to a World Championship Title. They ranked 4th in runs scored and 9th in runs allowed last season.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: The only player of significance lost was SP Ward to FA.
Players Acquired: Despite proving themselves with a WS Title, instead of giving an increase in budget the owner thought fit to instead keep some pocket chance, leaving the GM in a tough position in follow up to the championship season. They made several additions through waiver claims including LR Homes, 2B Colon, SP Beatty, and RP Murphy, and some interesting Rule 5 picks.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: SS Flores was a solid regular in BAL before having a down season in 2028 and an injury shortened season in 2029 (causing Lux to play out of position). BAL will be looking for Flores to bounce back to his routine 3-4 WAR seasons. Though if he does struggle watch out for SS Villalobos (#15 prospect) to supplant him in the near future.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Duensing is another player who was consistently 3-4 WAR before 2029 when he had a 5.07 ERA. They hope to have the Duensing of old back in 2030.
Expectation: BAL had several players who uncharacteristically had down seasons last year (SS Flores, SP Duensing, C Bell, and 1B/2B Busch). Although it is largely bringing back the same team as last year they appear to have more depth and a lot of bounce back candidates that should put BAL in the race for the division or at least a WC spot with 88-93 wins. And once they get into the playoffs…it’s best to not bet against them.

Kansas City Royals
2029 Review:
The team many picked as a favorite (shamefully raising hand) in the AL instead disappointed with a 80-82 season ranking 8th in runs scored and 2nd in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: KC lost RF Beck and a couple pitchers in RP Doyle and SP Martinez who provided little value last year.
Players Acquired: The only acquisition was a big one, acquiring C Cardenas who put up 2.8 WAR in his 29 year old debut season, giving them a nice combo at C.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: You don’t go from 102 wins to 80 without some serious regression from core players. Unfortunately that was 3B Barkers last season who proved to a 4-6 WAR player but disappointed with a .739 OPS last season. KC will be looking for him to bounce back.
Pitcher to Watch: I would love to put SP Bojorquez as he did not disappoint last season and looks likely to be the best pitcher in baseball. But most of the KC relievers had poor seasons and CL Herrera was not an exception. He will be looking to reestablish himself as CL after a 5.64 ERA last season.
Expectation: KC is one of the harder teams to peg in light of their disappointing 2029 season. They do have some big bounce back candidates and also several players who could be making an impact in the big leagues this year such as RPs Ramirez, Pacheco, SP Pinion, 1B DeCesare, 2B Alas, 2/3B Paz, CF Maloney, RF Ramirez. Some of those are top prospects and range from strong supplemental players to likely stars in the making. I do think KC will dramatically improve this season and I would expect a 90-95 win season from them, competing for the division.

Toronto Blue Jays
2029 Review:
TOR also had a disappointing 2029 season finishing with a 79-83 record, ranking 12th in runs scored and 8th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: The only player TOR lost was RP Ras who had a 4.59 ERA
Players Acquired: TOR has not acquired any players this offseason.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: It looks like RF Adorno will be the DH to start the year. He struggled mightily in his rookie campaign last season, but looks to provide closer to his AAA stats (.787 OPS) opposed to his big league career stats (.571 OPS).
Pitcher to Watch: SP Anthony debuted with a sparkling 2.39 ERA (2.92 FIP) in 71 IP, only to see his sophomore season turn in a 6.48 ERA (6.35 FIP) in 41 IP. TOR will need Anthony to prove a solid #2 SP behind Petersen.
Expectation: Again this was a team that had won 104 wins in 2028 followed by a disappointing 2029 season with 79 wins. Like KC, I think this team is more talented than the 79 wins, but not as talented as the 104 wins. I do think TOR is a step beneath KC yet in upside and will land more in the 85-90 win range.

LA Angels
2029 Review:
I would imagine that when your team wins 91+ games (including 100 wins twice) in 9 straight seasons, excluding 2025, anything less than a WS championship is a disappointment. However this team did win 103 wins and did so dominating the league ranking 1st in runs scored and runs allowed last year.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: LAA did lose some role players last year, mostly RPs in Dugger, Ramos, Medina, and Elledge. They also let SP Rutledge, 2B Lewis, and LF Lewis hit FA.
Players Acquired: They signed SP Santillan to replace Rutledge and also bounce back candidate SP Lynch to strengthen the SP depth. They also signed CF Tawa I assume to replace Trout in CF this season.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: Almost all LAA positions are filled by established players who consistent production. So I am going to steal last year’s pick and reuse it since he did not have a full rookie season. 1B Guinyard looks like he could be one of the best players in the league with elite power, plus contact, and plus plus discipline. He could be a force in the league for a very long time at the ripe age of 20.
Pitcher to Watch: Although it doesn’t appear he will start in the big leagues, SP North will be likely make his way there this season between injuries and performance. The #12 prospect in baseball should be a solid #2 SP and reinforce what was already the best pitching team in the league last year.
Expectation: There are very few holes to find on this team. They have established above average players at almost every position, and the few they don’t have young players with few high upside. SP does not look as top heavy as it did last year, but there is plenty of depth with young players who will be solid SP in the near future. This continues to be the most well built team in baseball with a high floor of production and plenty of depth, and a high ceiling with the stars and soon-to-be stars in their primes. I would expect another 95-100 win season from this team as they should be the favorite for the division.

Summary: All of these teams belong in this division. While I do think LAA is the favorite, all the other teams have a legitimate chance to win this division. Of course one thing that is hard to account for is the increase of difficulty for inter-division games each season. Talent-wise I do think these are 5 out 6 of the most talent teams in the AL this year.

For the GMs of the AL Champion Division:

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?

What is your record prediction for your team this season?

Who is the most underrated player on your club?

What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?

Who wins the AL Champion division this year?

[Zach]

Orioles GM Responds!

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
Biggest weakness is definitely catcher. I've gotten by with mediocre catching for a long time, and I've done nothing to address it. That and probably aging. The core here isn't spring chickens.

What is your record prediction for your team this season?
I'm gonna hope for 82 wins. Want to keep it above .500

Who is the most underrated player on your club?
It's gotta be Juan Moncada. A stalwart for the team since the 2025 season, he just doesn't generate any buzz here. He's the one big FA I've ever signed and he's been worth it.

What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Don't. Get. Relegated.

Who wins the AL Champion division this year?
Gotta say Oakland. Super strong core with some outstanding talent. They took the division over me last year and haven't really taken a step back at all.

[Matthew22]

Oakland A’s GM Interview:

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
I think my SP rotation lacked quality depth beyond my best one or two guys. That and the lack of overall depth in the lineup behind Soto and Tatis. I let a lot of guys go and brought in numerous pieces to supplant them, who I actually like better than their predecessors. Hopefully it works out for a more balanced lineup behind the two big studs.

What is your record prediction for your team this season?
89-73.

Who is the most underrated player on your club?
I would say Ben Merritt. As you touched on he hasn’t put up the stats to match his ratings/potential. Hoping the change of scenery sparks something in him and he can contribute to a contending team. (As a side note Chris, you listed 2B Edwards here, but Jazz Chisholm who I just traded for is my everyday 2B, he is currently on the IL after getting hurt in spring training)

What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
We have to take that next step forward. We have been a playoff team making the wild card a few years ago. Last year winning the Professional division and promptly getting swept in the ALDS. Now is the time we at least make an ALCS appearance or better, and solidify ourselves as a real WS contender, not just another playoff flameout.

Who wins the AL Champion division this year?
I think the Angels get it done again this year. They are an AL juggernaut and seem to be in the mix every year. Them or Baltimore to me gets it done. This could be a 3 playoff team division IMO.

[Andrejs]

I'm a little late, but I didn't want Chris's hard work to go to waste since these write-ups are always awesome!

What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
Our Starting Pitching depth wasn't great, so I went out and signed Tony Santillan and Daniel Lynch. Santillan was a Cy Young candidate until he got hurt and knock on wood, but Lynch has also been solid so far. Steve North, the #12 prospect, will also likely be making his debut sometime this season.

What is your record prediction for your team this season?
95-67

Who is the most underrated player on your club?
I'll have to go with OF Sergio Salas. He was a highly regarded prospect who exploded last season and is off to a hot start in 2030. I can see him being a star as he matures a little more.

What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Making the playoffs is always great, but it's time to win another World Series. Especially with this season likely to be Trout's last in Anaheim.

Who wins the AL Champion division this year?
It's going to be a battle because every team in the division is tough, but I have to go with us.