NL Tertiary Division
Teams that left the division: WAS+, SD+
Teams that joined the division: NYM-. PHI-
Philadelphia Phillies:
2029 Review:
PHI lost a league worst 98 games last year ranking 9th in runs scored and last in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: SP Medina, 1B Bell, C Naylor, 2B Senzel, and RP Allen all hit FA this year.
Players Acquired: PHI is fully leaning into the rebuild, failing to acquire any major league contracts.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 3B Rodriguez had a breakout season in 2028 with a OPS+ of 119 and above average defense. After struggling in 2030 he was traded to Philly at the deadline. Philly will be looking to identify if he can be a useful piece moving forward or not.
Pitcher to Watch: After 4 seasons SP Sheelah has a career ERA of 5.03. He will be given every opportunity to succeed with the talent to be a top of the rotation starter, but time is running out.
Expectation: Philly is in full rebuild mode, evaluating if each player can be a part of the next good team or should be traded for prospects. While there are still some decent players on this team, there is not enough here to be a playoff team. I would expect anywhere from 65-70 wins depending on how aggressive they sell at the deadline.
Chicago Cubs:
2029 Review:
CHI finished with 96 losses, ranking 10th in runs scored and 14th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: CHI various players to FA this year including 3B Bryant, SS Gimenez, 1B Weston, SP Nola, and RP Arano.
Players Acquired: CHI did sign some pitchers to help in the run prevention – SP Williams, SP Haviland, RP Garcia, and RP Neidert.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 1B Vargas has had 2 half seasons in the big leagues and failed to impress. Although he does have some big platoon splits, he should still be a solid 1B once he establishes himself.
Pitcher to Watch: Remains to be seen if SP Nelson will crack the opening day roster, but even if he doesn’t he will surely be up at some point. The #87 ranked prospect should find himself as a nice mid rotation starter for CHI.
Expectation: CHI seems further along in the rebuild than PHI where they are at the point when young players are starting to make the big leagues and become contributors. They are still ways off from the playoffs, but trending in a good direction. I would book CHI for 72-77 wins this season.
Cincinnati Reds:
2029 Review:
CIN won 70 games last year, ranking 11th in runs scored and 10th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: 2B Davison was the only meaningful contributor they lost.
Players Acquired: CIN did not acquire any ML players this offseason.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: Not too many interesting position players on the ML roster, so how about RF Braddock who is currently in AAA and maybe has a chance to make his debut. The 2028 #1 overall pick looks like he should a solid contributor no later than next year.
Pitcher to Watch: It appears SP Samuels will make his rookie debut this season. While I do not expect him to be more than a #3 SP, he will give CIN something to look forward to in the future.
Expectation: This team has some solid contributors, but not near enough talent to compete for a playoff push. They are probably best off selling some of the veterans while they have value and looking to the future. Depending on how many pieces they sell, this team probably wins 65-75 games.
New York Mets:
2029 Review:
NYM won 71 games in the Champion Division last year before being demoted all the way down to Tertiary Division. They ranked far last in the league in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed last year.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: RF Mann hit FA and 1B Castellano was claimed on waivers.
Players Acquired: The only significant moves NYM made was to add 2 players from waivers – 1B Ramos and CF Dekker.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: 1B Bravo made his brief debut last season in 99 PAs. He does have glaring platoon split, but fortunately from the dominant side. If he hits his talent level he will be an above average 1B in the league.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Banda would have borderline movement to make it on most ballclubs, but fortunately Citi Stadium is pretty good at suppressing HRs. Between that and being a lefty give him a good shot at become a mainstay in NYM rotation.
Expectation: Like most of the teams in this division, NYM have some solid regulars and some interesting young players that should see the field this year. It is hard to see NYM making a playoff run, but they may still be the 2nd best team in the division. 72-77 wins feels about right.
Arizona Diamondbacks:
2029 Review:
ARI surprised many people winning 94 games last season after losing 122 the year before. They ranked 1st in runs scored and 12th in runs allowed.
Offseason Recap:
Players Lost: ARI let 4 players hit FA – LF Hassell, SP Santillan, 1B Bauers, and SP Bielak.
Players Acquired: ARI signed SP Layne Jr to replace Santillan, in addition to 3B Arenado and C Naylor.
Season Preview:
Position Player to Watch: I’m going to use this more as a position to watch. ARI signed 3B Arenado to be the starter. But at 39 years old, if he struggles they have other options including Castro who put up a 3.3 WAR season last year.
Pitcher to Watch: SP Leftenant has been lackluster in his first 2 seasons in the big leagues, but he has the talent to be a mid-rotation SP and ARI does not have a plethora of SP so they will need him to pitch as a #3 starter this year.
Expectation: ARI is a tough team to peg. While they did have 94 wins last season it seems a lot of players had career years and everyone broke right for them. While they did sign Layne to replace Santillan they did not do much else to address a pitching staff that was 4th worst in the league last year. Regardless, their offense is fearsome and are clearly a step above anyone else in the division. With the quality of the division I expect 85-90 wins for this team.
Summary: A lot of these teams are rebuilding, either giving playing time to young players to develop, or watching aging stars fade out, with ARI as the exception. Maybe one of the rebuilding teams hits some luck/good seasons from all their players which enables them to fight for a WC, but my guess is ARI is the only team that makes the playoffs from the Tertiary this year.
For the GMs of the NL Tertiary Division:
What was your biggest perceived weakness in the offseason, and what did you do to fix it?
What is your record prediction for your team this season?
Who is the most underrated player on your club?
What needs to happen for you to consider 2029 a successful season?
Who wins the NL Tertiary division this year?