ATL (106-56) vs STL (93-69)
Season Series: ATL 12 – STL 7
What is at stake in this series? How about the markings of one of the greatest MLB dynasties vs a team exercising their playoff demons? STL has made the playoffs 4 straight years and not made the Championship Series yet, twice being knocked out by these very same Braves. On the other hand, if ATL wins the series, they will be the ONLY TEAM IN MLB HISTORY, to win 4 straight NL Pennants, below is are the only other teams to do it in the AL:
Length Team Seasons
5 New York Yankees 1949–1953
5 New York Yankees 1960–1964
4 New York Giants 1921–1924
4 New York Yankees 1936–1939
4 New York Yankees 1955–1958
4 New York Yankees 1998–2001
SP Comparison: These are two of the top three teams in pitching in the NL. While STL boasts one of the best top 3 SPs in the NL, unfortunately they may be without 2 of those 3 for this series it appears (Rosario & O’Banner both short-term injuries). ATL meanwhile will throw out an equally fearsome 4 of flame-throwers. Without the injuries this would probably be slight edge to ATL, but with the injuries to 2/3 top guys, this is a big advantage to the Braves.
Edge - ATL
RP Comparison: ATL also boasts a fearsome bullpen, boasting 6 primary relievers, 5 of which have an ERA under 3.20. While STL boasts an equally effective back-end guys, their middle relievers are not quite on the same level performance wise.
Edge – ATL
Hitting Comparison: When you see this ATL teams ranks #2 in runs scored in the NL you look for the superstar hitters that drive it. But not a single regular had an OPS over .870 this year. But they also did not have a regular with an OPS under .725 including SS, CF, & C. So while there is no elite hitter in the lineup, they will outhit you from 1-9 overall. Boring consistency is what this team is built on. STL is quite the opposite, relying on hitters such as Cates and Wallace to provide damage. They were league average in runs scored, but 4th in walks and 3rd in HRs, so they can provide some offensive outburst. But overall the ATL offense is one that is far deeper 1-9.
Edge – ATL
Defense Comparison: Both defenses are top 5 in the NL in ZR. While both teams are strong in middle IF, Corral gives ATL a significant advantage in CF.
Slight Edge – ATL
Key for ATL: Consistency. If they can keep hitting and pitching like they have all season, I’m not sure there is a team that can stop them. However, if their top hitters like Rael and James go cold, they will need someone else to step up. They also lost their all-star closer for the season, something to keep an eye on late in games.
Key for STL: They will need their best players to step up. Attene will only pitch once, Rosario may have to pitch through injury, and they need to find a 4th SP. They will need their top hitters to get hot and get some hits off ATL SPs. This team is talented, but their SP injuries may be their demise.
Prediction: ATL is catching some pretty big breaks facing teams with major injuries this late. I would like to see a matchup with these teams fully healthy because I think STL would have a chance. As is, I really struggle to see STL winning this series.
ATL over STL in 4
PHI (90-72) vs CHI (93-69)
Season Series: PHI 2 – CHI 4
PHI is making the playoffs for the first time since 2026, meanwhile CHI had their best season since 2022. Both these teams have struggle the last couple years, but are now looking to mark their mark in the NL.
SP Comparison: PHI boasts the 4th best SP ERA in the NL. Despite no clear ace on the staff, their top 3 arms should pitch well enough to keep them in most games. CHI SPs meanwhile struggled this year, and their best pitcher, Rutledge, appears to be festering a minor injury. This should be an advantage for Philly.
Edge - PHI
RP Comparison: In regards to the bullpen however, fortunes were reversed. CHI boasted the 2nd best ERA led by shutdown CL Bowyer and SU Escobedo. While their MR isn’t quite as dominant, they do have some long relievers who can pick up some slack from the SP. PHI on the other hand struggled with the 5th worst BP ERA, but they did log what seems to be a significant amount of innings. Edge to CHI here.
Edge – CHI
Hitting Comparison: Being 1st in walks and 2 in HR will give you a top 3 offense as Philly has. That said, they are dealing with some significant injuries including their star CF, RF, 2B, and LF – all of whom put up 2.4+ WAR this year. With all those players out this series, the only dangerous hitter they boast is Fill. If they can take this series they can hope to get some of those hitters back for the Championship Series. CHI also boasted a top 5 offense this year, led by 1B Thaiss and LF Vargas. CHI will need those 2 to come up big this series, but a healthy CHI offense is better than a crippled Philly offense.
Edge – CHI
Defense Comparison: CHI defense is league average, and although their IF defense is pretty bad, their OF makes up for it. Philly had 3 non-C positive defensive regulars, and they are all currently injured. This is a bad defense that they are going to have to outslug their deficiencies.
Edge - CHI
Key for PHI: They are going to need their SP to pitch well enough to keep them in games, and have a few irregular contributors get hot enough to outscore CHI. That and get healthy if they can sneak past CHI this series.
Key for CHI: Outhit the holes their SP will likely get them into. They will likely have short leashes on the SP and let the RP do some heavy lifting this series.
Prediction: Once again, I would like to see Philly healthy in this series as I think they would have a good shot against CHI. But as it is, I don’t see the multitude of subs Philly will need hitting well enough to outscore CHI.
CHI over PHI in 4
BAL (98-65) vs NYY (99-64)
Season Series: BAL 8 – NYY 12
You knew it would come down to this right? After a 163rd game to decide the division, it all comes down to this. This is NYY 2nd playoff appearance since 2020, their other appearance coming in 2029 when they were knocked out of the Championship Series by…you guessed it, BAL. Remember how the SFG won WS in even years back 2010-2014? Well the Orioles seem to be the AL odd year parallel. They made the playoffs and won the World Series in 2027 & 2029 while missing the playoffs the even years. 2031 is an even year.
SP Comparison: BAL had the 3rd best SP ERA in the AL led by Ace Oregel. The other 3 top guys should be able to throw some quality starts and give the offense a chance to win it. NYY had a below average rotation, although they have 4 guys that can all keep the game in reach on most nights. But they do not have that ace to rely on for a sure win.
Edge – BAL
RP Comparison: Where NY lacks SP, they have a fierce back-end of the BP. All of their main RPs have an ERA under 4 led by probably the best CL in baseball in Haines. If they can get a lead into the 7-8th inning they should be able to finish the game. BAL BP is…not good. They have 2 guys with over 12.1 IP with an ERA under 4.45. If BAL takes a lead into the 7-8th inning, it’s not over.
Edge – NYY
Hitting Comparison: BAL ranks 1st in every offensive category except HR (4th) and walks (2nd). This team can hit. I mentioned how good ATL offense was without a hitter with an OPS of .870. BAL has 4 hitters with an OPS over .925. Look out NYY pitching! NYY has a top 5 offense as well led by Lala and Oviedo. They rank 1st in walks and 2nd in HR. But as good as they are, BAL gets the edge here.
Edge – BAL
Defense Comparison: NYY ranks 2nd worst in ZR in the AL. Their only positive contributors at 2B, SS, & LF. Not a strength by any means. BAL also ranking in the bottom in ZR, but at least some respectable defense in the important spots – CF & SS. Neither team can boast here, but I guess BAL gets the nod.
Edge - BAL
Key for BAL: This team has 17 more runs scored than COL, and 50 more than the team in 3rd. We know BAL can hit, it will be up to their starters not named Oregel to continue to keep them in the game and the Yankee hitters in the ballpark. And hopefully they don’t need their BP much…
Key for NYY: They will need to keep riding their big bats and hope to outslug BAL in the series. They lead the season series so maybe their SP takes it up a notch against this offense. If they can score early and often and let their bullpen do the rest it should be a good series.
Prediction: This is a really tight series, hence why they finished 162 games with the same record. NYY leads the season series, but I have seen this movie with SFG before, I’m a believer.
BAL over NYY in 5
LAA (92-70) vs SEA (92-70)
Season Series: LAA 3 – SEA 3
LAA have made the playoffs 10 of the last 11 seasons, but had their lowest win total since 2025. Is this a fading dynasty, or a small blip on the radar like 2025? Meanwhile this is SEA first trip back to the playoffs since 2026 when they were dominant. Is this an ascending franchise battling a franchise taking a step back, does LAA experience give them the edge to continue their AL dominance.
SP Comparison: LAA had a top 4 rotation despite missing ace Milligan for the season. They still have a solid top 4 guys who should give them a chance each game with a quality start. SEA ranked 6th in SP ERA led by SP Patterson who led the league in IP. Although SEA SP is not as deep as LAA.
Edge – LAA
RP Comparison: SEA BP was league average, and I would rate it as such. While they have some stud performers (Onyshko), they also have some guys who struggled. Also keep an eye on CL Jimenez who posted a 2.75 ERA, but an poor 4.48 FIP. LAA BP was slightly better, ranking 4th in ERA, led by CL Boadas with a bounce back season. Neither BP is a strength or weakness, but LAA has a better top.
Slight Edge – LAA
Hitting Comparison: This is a strong LAA offense, ranking top 2 in every major category except batting average, led by 1B Guinyard, CF Trout, and RF Perrolas (quite the buy-low trade). If it weren’t for BALs otherworldly offense, this would be the offense of envy around the league. SEA also has a top 5 offense despite playing in a pitcher’s park. They rank 3rd in HR hit with 4 batters with 70+ graded power. This team can score hard and quick. While both offenses are the strength of the team, I have to give the nod to LAA for a more well rounded 1-9.
Slight Edge – LAA
Defense Comparison: SEA ranks 1st in efficiency, and 6th in ZR. They have an elite defensive MI in SS Vergara and Franco, but below average at most every other position. Like SEA, LAA ranks high (3rd) in DE, but much lower in ZR (9th). Outside of SS Pacheco, they don’t have any positive defenders at important positions.
Edge - SEA
Key for LAA: Keep SEA hitters in the park. If they can limit the HR from SEA, they should score enough runs to take the series. But that is easier said than done with those SEA sluggers.
Key for SEA: They will need their key hitters to get hot and outslug LAA. They will need their SP to keep them in the game, but it will really come down to scoring enough runs. In the 3 games they lost to LAA, they score 0 or 1 run. It is feast or famine in SEA.
Prediction: Outside of the storyline to the NYY/BAL series, I think this is my favorite. Very evenly matched teams that have an even season series. End of the day it will come down to SEA hitters. When the hit they win, if they don’t, it could be a short series. I like LAA pitching a little better, and their offensive consistency.
LAA over SEA in 5