SF (88-74) vs CHI C (88-74)
Season Series: SF 3 – CHI 3
This should be a good matchup of teams that had identical records in the regular season. Unfortunately for SF the games will be played in CHI, and I think that will be a large factor in this series. CHI has a good offense and an excellent BP to back some decent SP. On the other side, as always, SF relied on their SP & BP with just enough offense. Although their ace, Rosales, will not be pitching in this series after pitching the regular season finale. While I do think SF has the slight SP edge still in the 3 games, CHI boasts a far superior offense and a better BP. If the games were in SF I could talk myself into the Giants, but SF has a brutal 35-46 road record this season.
How each team can advance:
SF – It comes down to SP with SF. If their 2-4 starters can keep CHI off the board, the offense may be able to sneak a few runs against an inferior CHI rotation. Look for them to win low scoring games.
CHI – Score enough for the SP and hand the lead to the BP. Early leads will be important.
Prediction: CHI over SF in 3 – I think CHI offense will score enough runs to compensate for the SP, and the bullpen will come through.
ATL (83-79) vs PHI (95-67)
Season Series: ATL 3 – PHI 4
A rare sight to see ATL coming in with this poor a record, and PHI having a great year. Although, if we peak at some underlying numbers, their Pythagorean record is identical – 87-75. These teams may be more evenly matched than what first meets the eye. While ATL boasted one of the better pitching staffs, their offense underperformed previous years, ranking league average in most categories. PHI, on the other hand, slugged their way to 95 wins, ranking 1st in HR, walks, and SLG%, and overcame the pitching.
How each team can advance:
ATL – ATL will have 3 great SP this series, including possible Cy Young winner Carpio. For them it is all about run prevention, which will be difficult in a stadium like Citizens Bank Park.
PHI – Continue to do what they have done all season, outslug the opponent. They are facing some good SP, and some lefties of which PHI only has a .500 record against, and they will need to continue to slug at home.
Prediction: PHI over ATL in 3 – Again, this has as much to do with where they are playing, as the team strengths. Even against suspect pitching, I do not trust ATL to score enough runs this series, especially if PHI has Soriano or Weathers pitch, as ATL struggles against LHP. I think PHI has a good advantage at home and will continue to out homer the opponent.
CHI WS (88-74) vs HOU (96-66)
Season Series: CHI 3 – HOU 4
CHI is making their 2nd consecutive playoff appearance, powered by their starting rotation, led by Padgett and Poliziano. Their BP is a little suspect, but the backend looks good enough to get the job done. That helped overcome an offense that only had 2 players with an OPS over .750, and an offense that ranked 13th in runs scored. On the other side we have a well balanced team in HOU, that ranked 3rd in runs scored, but also the best AL BP and 3 solid SP themselves.
How each team can win:
CHI – They just need to win the games the Cy Young candidates start - Padgett and Poliziano. If they can pitch 7+ quality innings, and the offense can score just a few runs, they should win this series.
HOU – While they are facing some really tough SP, their rotation is solid itself, with a shutdown BP. But it will all come down to HOU batters vs CHI SP.
Prediction: HOU over CHI in 3 – This was a tough one. I really, really like CHI pitchers, but I see CHI struggled to hit HOU pitchers (aside from Riolo) this season. I think HOU gets into CHI BP and scores enough to win in 3.
OAK (89-73) vs LAA (98-64)
Season Series: OAK 8 – LAA 11
Division rivals! Throw the numbers out because these teams know each other well. OAK is a well balanced team (or average), ranking 8th in runs scored, and 5th in runs allowed. But their defense is a big reason for some of their success, that and Juan Soto anyway. LAA comes in off another great season where they outwalked and outslugged their opponents, led by a solid starting rotation and an overall solid BP.
How each team can win:
OAK – Their top 4 SP have decent numbers against LAA this season, and Juan Soto is getting hot and looked for that elusive ring. OAK is also currently riding a 5 game win streak.
LAA – Looks like Lizalde and Torres will both miss this series (rest and injury) so LAA will have to do with some of their backend starters games 1 & 2, and North in game 3. They will need the offense to setup against OAK pitching. And the big question, does Trout come off the IL and play this series??
Prediction: OAK over LAA in 2 – I’m going with the upset here. Most importantly, Soto needs his ring. But I think the pitching favors OAK in games 1 & 2 this series and OAK has hit LAA pitching. If LAA pushes the series to game 3, they should be heavily favored with North on the mound.