STL (108-54) vs PHI (95-67)
Season Series: STL 6 – PHI 1
The defending champs in STL are taking on the Phillies who are back after some rebuilding years following their 2025 championship. 2 of the best 3 teams in the NL squaring off. Is STL the new ATL? Will the same fans who threw batteries get to celebrate another ring?
SP Comparison: STL boasts a fearsome top 2 in Attene and Coronado. However with the CS being 7 games instead of 5, they will need to dip into more of their depth, starting Rosario and Rocker. Rosario was out most of the year with injury and Rocker had a solid #4 season. PHI on the other hand does not have an ace, but a couple solid mid-rotation guys. Sheelah has had a disaster outing and a shutout so far in the postseason, May has 11 shutout innings, and Soriano has a solid start. Although starters 3&4 are more of a push, I’ll take that STL 1-2 punch over more teams.
Edge - STL
RP Comparison: STL BP is above average, but it is their back end that can match up with any teams. Their closer Beatty had a down year with a 3.12 ERA and 3.51 FIP with 29/36 saves, that should tell you how good is typically is. Howell is a very capable SU guy and their middle guys are decent enough if not overused. PHI BP doesn’t look over threatening overall, but their CL Villegas and SU guys Parra and Delgadillo had really solid seasons. And velocity plays up in the playoffs, and they have 7 guys in their BP throw up to 98, and 4 of them up to 100. This matchup might come down to how much depth is required for each BP. But I think I like PHI BP a little more in their trusted guys and some good depth.
Slight Edge – PHI
Hitting Comparison: This STL offense ranks top 4 in every major category except Ks. When you factor in they play in a pitcher’s ballpark, their #1 batter WAR ranking makes sense. They rank #3 in BA, #2 in OBP, #2 in HR, and #3 in SB. They can literally beat you any way. Every regular has an OPS+ of 97 or higher, led by 1B Werner who led the league in OPS this season. PHI utilized their ballpark to their advantage, ranking #1 in HR, BBs, and SLG%. Get guys on and blast them home is a good strategy for CBP. They also have plenty of guys who can beat you up and down the lineup, led by 1B Fill who ranked #3 in OPS in the NL. Another name to keep an eye on, their rookie CF Yetman. He had an OPS of 1.061 that would have been best with enough at-bats, but the scary part is he did most of that in August-September where he had an OPS of 1.327! Overall I think PHI will struggle more hitting HR at Busch than STL offense will at CBP.
Slight Edge – STL
Defense Comparison: STL is one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking #2 in defensive efficiency and #3 in ZR, with plus defenders at the most critical positions – 2B, SS, CF, C. PHI however sacrificed defense for offense, ranking 3rd worst in defensive efficiency and 4st worst in ZR. They do have plus defenders at SS and 2B, but are weak at CF and C. Clear advantage here for STL.
Edge – STL
Key for STL: It is as simple as winning the games started by Attene and Coronado and you win the series. STL also has home-field advantage, to which they won 71.6% of those games. The only worry here is that they only went 32-26 in August through October after their scorching hot start. If they can get the offense going, this will be a very tough team to beat.
Key for PHI: Beating Attene and Coronado is difficult enough, but PHI really struggles against LHP. Bottom line is they need to win games not started by them, and steal at least 1 game from them. Getting to the BP early will be imperative. PHI is 29-11 in 1-run games, so keep an eye on close games. And unlike STL, PHI is now playing their best ball, with a 54-28 record (.658%) record since July 1st.
Prediction: On paper this looks like an easy win for STL, but this PHI team has confidence and is hot running through the playoffs, already knocking out the formidable Padres in a sweep. If PHI can somehow find a way to win a game or two started by Attene or Coronado, then look out. My head says STL and my heart says PHI. I’ll pick STL with the lopsided season series, but don’t be surprised when PHI keeps on winning on their way to a pennant.
STL over PHI in 6
BAL (101-61) vs KC (100-62)
Season Series: BAL 4 – KC 3
The 2 best teams in the AL face off, with BAL looking to cement themselves with 3 rings in 6 years as a dynasty, and KC, despite a lot of regular season success, going for their 1st championship since 2024. BAL bucking the every other year trend and KC looking to make their mark in KC history. 2 heavyweights battle it out in an exciting 7 game series!
SP Comparison: These are the best two starting rotations in baseball this year. This BAL rotation was 2nd in ERA despite a subpar defense. Led by Puga and Leinberger who will probably get some down ballot Cy Young votes, and backed by Merritt and Duensing who are very solid. These 4 guys will keep you in every game. KC rotation however is just as good, ranking #1 in ERA and 2nd in WAR. It is headlined by Bojorquez, who is putting up historic numbers and had one of the best pitching seasons ever, putting up the most WAR for a pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2001. 238.2 IP, 0.4 HR/9, 27/33 QS, and 0.96 WHIP. After him you have the rookie Pacheco, ranked #43 prospect, who started to dominate in September with a 3.11 ERA. Then you have Norris who continually puts up #2-3 SP numbers every year and Pinion as a solid #4 with a 3.70 ERA. If this was a 5 game series I would pick KC with 40% of the starts by Bojorquez, but in a 7 game series I am taking BAL depth.
Slight Edge – BAL
RP Comparison: BAL has probably the best SU/CL combo in Oregel (46/51 saves) and Martinez (2.41 FIP), but their middle relief is a concern. BAL has the most BS in baseball, led by Carter with 9. Ideally BAL would like their starters to go 7IP and hand the lead to their back 2 guys. But if they need to go early, it could be a real concern. KC BP ranked #2 overall in ERA, led by rookie CL Davis who had a 0.92 ERA! While KC overall BP numbers look good, they don’t have many shutdown guys outside of Davis, with Herrera on the IL. In a 7 game series where the top relief matter more than depth, I’m giving the edge to BAL here.
Edge - BAL
Hitting Comparison: Another fearsome BAL offense that ranks top 3 in almost every major category. While they don’t have 1 hitter who is an MVP candidate, they do have 6 regulars with OPS over .800. This is a lineup that will wear a pitcher down from 1-9. They lead the league in OBP, doubles, and base running. KC boasts an underrated offense that doesn’t rank high in many categories, with a tough pitchers park, but still rank 5th in runs scored and batter WAR. Led by 1B Barker and 3B Ramos who both ranking top 10 in OPS in the league, but supported by SBs and great base running. While KC is not a bad offense, BAL has the clear edge here.
Edge – BAL
Defense Comparison: This has always been a sore spot for BAL, ranking bottom 3rd in defensive efficiency and ZR. With that said, CF Villalobos and C Boychuk are pluses on defense, but their middle infield is lacking with SS Flores on the IL. KC ranks 1st in ZR in all baseball by a healthy margin. They boast probably the best defensive 3B and RF in the league, and well above average at SS, CF, and C. Clear advantage here for KC
Edge – KC
Key for BAL: Win the games not started by Bojorquez and stay out of the bullpen as much as possible. If the BAL starters can go 6-7 innings of solid pitching each night, they should win the series. But will the even year curse keep them from the World Series?
Key for KC: They should win the two games that Bojorquez starts, so they just need to steal two more. They struggled against LH pitching, but only Leinberger throws from that side. They will want to get the BAL starters out quick and take advantage of the BP.
Prediction: Both these teams won 100 games and made it to the CS for a reason. This series will come down to starting pitching. If KC advances, Bojorquez will be a big reason why, if BAL advances it will be solid starting pitching 1-4. I think the BAL team is well positioned for a 7 game series.
BAL over KC in 7