CLB

Congratulations to the Reds for their victory in the World Series of 2049. Reds busting a 59 year drought by picking up the title, which got me wondering about the current droughts and streaks across CLB.

Playoff Droughts – As ever in CLB, a good mix of teams have made the playoffs in recent years, but several have been waiting a long time to make even a wildcard game. Astros fans waiting the longest at the moment.

Team	PO Drought
Astros	2033 (16 years)
Cubs	2036 (13 years)
Twins	2038 (11 years)
Blue-Jays	2041 (8 years)

On the other end of the scale, the Orioles are the model of consistency making the playoffs for the last 8 seasons in a row. Mariners (6) and Pirates (5) also proving hard to hold out of the playoffs at the moment.

League Pennant Droughts – Brewers now waiting the longest for a WS appearance with their only pennant coming when still in the AL back in 1982. No frustration can compare to the Braves though who have made the CLB playoffs 22 times without a pennant to show for it!

Team	Pennant Drought
Brewers	1982 (when in AL)
Twins	1991
Padres	1998
Braves	1999

World Series title droughts – In CLB we have had 15 different winners at the end of all things each year, with the Guardians leading the pack with 6 CLB titles. However there are many teams who have kept their fans in a holding pattern for much longer.

In MLB the Cubs and Astros have both broken their droughts but neither have broken through in CLB and the real-life Guardians can only dream of the 6 titles held by their CLB counterparts.

Curse of the billy goat still holding strong in CLB up to a whopping 141 years of waiting for those loveable losers. Surely the potential for the most glorious triumph for them in the future? Maybe Bob May is the man to lead them to glory? Plenty of teams still waiting for their first title as well, with a few near misses over the years.

Team	WS Drought
Cubs	1908 (141 years)
Rangers	never won – established 1961 (88 years)
Astros	never won – established 1962 (87 years)
Brewers	never won – established 1969 (80 years)
Mariners	never won – established 1977 (72 years)

(WEST PALM BEACH, FL) – Despite a league-worst 52-110 record in 2045, the Washington Nationals did not have the first overall pick in the upcoming 2046 CLB Draft. Due to the recent implementation of the draft lottery, they were forced into selecting third overall.

That lottery, however, does not apply past the first round, so they would hold the first pick (pick #34) in the second round. The Nationals’ brass did not hesitate and selected 2B Oscar Gorman with that pick.

Gorman, a then 21 year old product of the Santa Clarita College Navigators in the CLB Collegiate Feeder Leagues, came drafted as a well-seasoned left-handed hitting second baseman with excellent bat skills. So much so that Gorman was a back-to-back winner of the CCOL 2B Silver Slugger Award in his respective league (SL1). 

Due to his advanced skill and experience, Nationals’ GM Pablo Dominguez spearheaded the charge in starting Gorman in AA Harrisburg. It is not typical for rookies to start at the Double A level, as it is often noted as the most difficult minor league level. It’s the point where those that could really have a major league future are making their best effort to be called up and improve. That said, it is not uncommon for minor leaguers to struggle at that level, particularly those that are thrown into it.

The thing is, Gorman did not struggle. In a brief two week, 12 game stint, Gorman collected a .375/.444/.458 slash line, good for a 154 OPS+.

Nationals’ executives were so impressed with Gorman, they agreed to give him a big test following the continued struggle of 2B Ricky Christian and promoted him to the majors. What Gorman then proceeded to do defied many expectations, particularly those of rookies that were drafted in the same season they debuted.

Gorman’s 2046 Season: 68G, 264 AB, .341/.359/.549, 17 2B, 12 HR, 47 RBI. 2.0 WAR

For rookies to debut 40 points above the average hitter in OPS+ is extremely impressive. It’s even more impressive noting that Gorman was only 21 years old during the 2046 season, and had a whopping 12 minor league games under his belt. Some would consider it to be historic given the circumstances.

And it’s not just the results that were impressive. How Gorman did it is what impressed the Nationals’ front office the most.

Gorman was scouted as a spray hitter, which typically would mean he’s sacrificing power to make better contact. Gorman however hit for plus power while still maintaining the excellent contact skills.

Below is Gorman’s 2046 major league level spray chart, which not only displays an incredibly advanced approach, but also power to all fields. Most 21-year old players are not this advanced, let alone have grown into power to accentuate this style of hitting.

All of this is to not say that Gorman is without weaknesses. Gorman, despite the impressive bat skills, is not one to take walks typically, an easy way to reach base. It may keep his OBP down throughout his career without some improvement.

Additionally, Gorman is not a savvy defender. While he has the ability to field multiple positions (1B, 2B, LF, RF), he is not particularly great at any of them. Gorman spent 2046 primarily as a 2B and was not very successful at it (-5.3 ZR in 449.2 IP).

If you were to ask Gorman about any of it though, he’s just happy to be here.

“To be playing at the major league level is a dream in itself, let alone at 21 years old like I was last year. And to be as successful as I was, I’m very proud of myself, and the coaching I received at Santa Clarita along the way. I’m also incredibly blessed the Nationals’ organization would take the risk they made in promoting me to the majors so early. I can’t wait to be performing for this organization as we continue to grow together during this rebuild.” said Gorman in an interview with the Washington Post last week during Spring Training.

So far, it seems as if Gorman is picking up right where he left off in 2046. Hitting to the tune of a .385/.429/.667 slash line while being the best performing batter in Nationals’ Spring Training thus far. The Nationals hope the trend continues from Spring Training, but also from the impressive 2046 campaign.

Due the unconventional skipping through the minor leagues, Gorman was the first graduate of the 2046 draft class at the major league level. And not only did Gorman graduate, he did so with flying colors.

1. Is this the year a 1st round pick breaks out?

Since Peter Brand took over as Padres general manager prior to the 2037 season, the team has had an abysmal draft performance — especially in the first round.

• 2037: RF Alec Bamber (traded to Cleveland in 2044) — 1.93 WAR
• 2038: SP Randy Price — (-0.7 WAR)
• 2039: SP Doug Garrett — 3.31 WAR
• 2040: SP Curt Cole — 1.01 WAR
• 2041: SP Clarence Mulkey — 1.98 WAR
• 2042: SP Juan Sandoval — 0.49 WAR
• 2043: SS Jonah Mathews — (-0.05 WAR)

Bamber never reached the lofty power projections that scouts raved about on draft day, while Price, Cole and Sandoval have all battled injuries on their journey to the Majors.

Sandoval, taken fourth overall, will have to wait until next year to take the field. The former #3 prospect in baseball saw the 2046 season end with a torn rotator cuff injury in early May. A major offseason setback will sideline him for the entire 2047 campaign, too.

This year’s squad will feature Garrett and Mulkey in the rotation, Mathews penciled in at shortstop, and 2044 first round pick Pepe Reyna as the projected starter in left field. Will any of them live up to their first round billing in 2047?

2. Which Kevin Battle will show up?

Though he was never highly regarded as a prospect, DH Kevin Battle showed enough promise early on to merit a 6-year, $102 million contract extension in 2044. Battle’s high point came in 2042, when he mashed 38 home runs, drove in 138 and had a wRC+ of 149 — earning a trip to the All-Star Game. After a down year in 2043, he rebounded with 21 homers in 2044 and hit for a .306 average.

Since then? It’s been ugly. 

In 2045, Battle hit just .247 and was a win below replacement level. After that season, the Padres moved Battle from left field to designated hitter, hoping that might spark a renewed focus on offense. He had a better year in 2046, but the results have lagged behind his contract value.

If Battle can find his form from 2042, the Padres might finally have enough punch on offense to make some noise in the competitive NL West.

3. Will the green light always be on?

Third base coach Coy Shepherd is going to have some fun this year. After the Padres stole a league-best 161 bases in 2046, they might be even faster in 2047. Preseason projections have them at 181 steals this year.

RF Steve McIlroy had a down year offensively in 2046, but still managed to steal 38 bases — 2nd in the National League. He isn’t the only menace on the basepaths the Padres boast, as CF Al Holba (21 steals), 2B Rob Scott (20) and utility man Andy John (18) are all coming back.

San Diego has added speedy infielder Pete Welch, and guys like C Luis Gomez, OF Jorge Lara and Reyna have wheels, too.

While getting to first and second bases have been doable for the Padres, it’s getting those runners home that has been the biggest weakness.

4. Will the pitching staff come through?

Pitching has long been an Achilles heel for the Padres. It’s a weakness they tried to shore up in the offseason, signing closer Willie Lee, long reliever Ron Grady and starter Jim Brown. 

Brand told us that these new additions should help keep the ball in the ballpark. That was a major issue for Mulkey last year, whose 35 home runs allowed were the 5th-worst in the NL, leading to 18 losses for the young righty.

San Diego will again look to Wes Smith to lead the rotation. Smith shaved nearly a whole run off his ERA from 2045 to 2046, and Brand has already declared the fan favorite as the Padres’ Opening Day starter. They’ll need another big year from him if they intend to compete. 

Old-timers tell me that the soft-tossing Smith reminds them of the original Crafty Lefty — Randy Jones, though I had to dig through something called YouTube to learn more. I’m told, though, that fans can easily access those highlights from their Neuralink chip with the Padres’ official X app, now available in the Qualcomm Friarverse, brought to you by Navy Federal Credit Union.

After losing Ken Mitchell in free agency, San Diego will need Garrett and lefty Ivar van Aerden to step up and deliver.

5. How hot is Peter Brand’s seat?

The last time the Padres made the playoffs (2028), most recent first round pick Jeremy Haney was still in diapers. In order to avoid going 20 years between playoff appearances, San Diego needs to start winning now.

As we previously mentioned, Brand’s history of acquiring talent through the draft has been spotty. New scouting director Kevin Thompson should help, but what the Padres need most now is for the 26-man roster to play up to their ability. Brand brought in new bench coach Josh Benjamin and hitting coach Alan Wood to shake things up, but it remains to be seen what kind of effect those moves will have.

Every year, owner Charlie Fowler has the same expectation — make the playoffs. However, Brand has had to shave nearly $30 million from payroll the past two seasons. Going into this season, the Padres have the 6th-lowest payroll in baseball and the 2nd-smallest budget to work with. Meanwhile, NL West rival San Francisco boasts the highest payroll in baseball — and some recent hardware to go along with it. Arizona and Colorado also have top-10 payrolls.

With these financial restrictions in place, can Brand find the right mixture on the cheap to take San Diego to the next level? It’ll be fun to see.

2045 was quite a year for the world champion Oakland Athletics. And for two Oakland A’s in particular, there could be some additional accolades in store when the Regular Season Awards are handed out in a few short days.

As pictured below at the 2045 All-Star Game, 1B Antonio Hernandez and 2B Kevin Lewis appear to be the clear front-runners for AL MVP this year:

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This makes for a somewhat unusual phenomenon, harking back to previous intra-team MVP battles such as those between Pittsburgh’s Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla in 1991, Cleveland’s Manny Ramirez and Roberto Alomar in 1999, San Francisco’s Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds in 2000, Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki and Bret Boone in 2001, Chicago’s Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo in 2016, and Tampa Bay’s Bob Heath and Kade Chapman in 2033.

Ironically, these 2 dynamic players also slotted #1 and #2 in the Oakland lineup, with Hernandez leading off almost exclusively and Lewis following, forcing pitchers to pick their poison.

Let’s dive into some numbers:

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As pictured above, Lewis leads in the all-important WAR category, in fact leading the entire AL, helped by his superb defense at 2B, leading all qualifying 2B in zone rating (ZR). Lewis also led the AL in OBP and was top 5 in BA, OPS, WOBA, WRC, R, and BB.

Hernandez trailed only Lewis in WAR but led the AL in hits, RBI, WOBA, and WRC, and led the entire league in runs scored and WPA. He also finished top 5 in SLG, OPS, 2Bs, and SB.

Based on these impressive resumes, a strong argument can be made for either candidate, but one thing seems fairly certain; that when the Regular Season MVP Award is announced, the winner will be wearing an Oakland A’s uniform.

An entirely new World Series matchup! Never before in Baseball history have the Mariners and Pirates been left standing at the end. Even within CLB this is a rarely seen sight, as the 2 teams have only played 10-games against each other in the Stats+ era.  (Mariners have the edge 6-4 after sweeping the last series played back in 2040). The teams are both strong all round, but with contrasting styles – Mariners hit for high average and don’t strike out, the Pirates take their walks and the strikeouts that go with them. Both teams hit the ball hard and have the pitching to back up their sluggers.

The Mariners came into the playoffs as one of the favourites after emerging victorious in the highly competitive ALW. They carried their regular season form into the division series with a comfortable and high-scoring sweep of the Guardians before battling through 6 tough games with their division rival Angels to take the AL pennant. Mariners fans have only had to wait a couple of years since their last WS appearance, but will be hoping they can improve on the narrow game 7 loss against the Nationals in 2040, but some pressure comes as the franchise is still seeking its first WS title – many are predicting 2042 is the year they make the breakthrough.

After leading CLB for wins in the regular season,  the Pirates route through the playoffs has been draining with the full 5-games required to edge past the Nationals, and 7 more to squeeze past the Giants. Both will look back at missed opportunities to put the Pirates away, but this team doesn’t seem to mind the heat of an elimination game – will they still have the energy for another long series to finish the season? The Pirates last appearance in a WS was their 7-game defeat by the Athletics in 2035 – and many Pirates supporters still shudder at the thought of Israel Guerra’s complete game shutout that took the title to Oakland.

Injury Report:
All time CLB great Mike Dalton remains day-to-day with a stiff back that he has suffered throughout the playoffs. The Pirates have been unwilling to give their star hitter a day out of the lineup, but as a result he isn’t getting the rest he needs to recover fully. Nonetheless he continues to tough it out for his team, managing a .412 OBP through the playoffs so far despite hitting just .143 with zero XBHs. Will he rediscover his power stroke in time? Or will Mariner’s pitchers exploit his ailing back?

The only dark spot on the Mariners post-season run, has been the absence of Raul “two dogs” Hernandez. Hernandez was enjoying the best season of his already formidable career, hitting .351 and accumulating over 7 WAR until he strained an  abdominal muscle beating out an infield hit during game 3 of the ALDS. The injury didn’t stop Hernandez being named MVP for the series, but cruelly ruled him out for the remainder of the playoffs. His Mariners teammates stepped up to fight through the ALCS and will have to do so again as he watches the WS from the sidelines.

One to watch – Mariners leftie Dave Jennings started twice in the ALCS with the Mariners winning both games, and looks to anchor their rotation against the team that originally drafted him way back in 2027. Pirates GM ExpiringFrog traded the young prospect away for a bag of magic outfielder beans. Will Jennings now return to haunt his old side?

Overall/Predictions – This is a tough match-up to call – Mariners hitters even without Hernandez look too strong to hold down for a whole series (hitting .319/.368/.561 as a team in the playoffs), but Pirates pitching has held opponents under a .700 OPS so something has to give. Pirates ace Pat Shaw won’t be available until at least game 3 after his game 7 NLCS start, so Seattle will be hoping to get an early lead before Shaw even takes the field.

I’d be surprised to see this series end in less than 6-games in either direction, but my gut tells me Dalton has some part to play for better or worse before all is over. As this is my article, i’ll say Pirates in 7 but either team looks a worthy champ.

The Nats have a point to prove this year after missing the playoffs in 2041 attempting to defend their title from 2040. A team that feels it belongs deep in the playoffs each year, but at the start of this season Nationals fans just hoped to survive in the division long enough for superstar Luis Icaza to get healthy. In reality the acquisition of young CF Juan Reyes from the Rockies was an inspired move, with the youngster hitting .388 to lead the league and put himself in MVP conversations as well, Robby Boucher combined with Reyes to give the Nats a dynamic OF duo. The Nats couldn’t hold off the surging Phillies at the end of the year, but they will be carried a long way by their potent and patient offense (1st for OBP in the NL) ana Icaza feeling like he still has a lot left in the tank and something to prove this year.

After missing the playoffs by a couple of games last year, the Pirates made a huge splash in the off-season acquiring superstar Mike Dalton from the Rockies in the hope he would take them to the next level. Despite the move to less hitter friendly confines, Dalton’s 7+ WAR was the greatest single season from a Pirate hitter in the history of CLB (previous best 6.3 from Garry McKenzie in 2029). The Pirates supporting cast stepped up in support of mighty Mike – Erwin Aalbers emerging at 1B (despite being shopped around for the last 2 years), and mid-season acquisition Donnie Donahue was 3rd in CLB for walks (behind only Dalton and Jones from the Red-Sox). The Pirates pitching unit has been strong and stable all year led by Shaw and Sahinian, and Jonathan Kendrick added real depth when acquired mid-season from the Red-Sox. The deep rotation and a flamethrowing bullpen are what the Pirates need to perform to advance. Wilson Hernandez in particular has excelled in the closer role and Pirates fans are hoping he can continue his strong season through October.

Prediction – Pirates in 5 (Dalton 3 HRs, Icaza 2 HRs)

In the off-season, the Phillies raised some eyebrows with the huge $250 million contract for untested IFA Jose Rosa, but he has repaid their faith with a stunning debut season. Already a 6 WAR player in his age 22 season, he seems likely to be a driving force for the Phillies for a long time to come. The Phillies hitters as a whole continue to torment NL pitching staffs as they led the National League in Homeruns, extra base hits and OPS with veterans Morrison and Myong both continuing their impressive Phillie careers. Only downside for the Phillies is the absence (at least at the start of the playoffs) of SS Anastasio Medina who was also excelling in his first year in Philadelphia but currently out with bone-spurs. As if their terrifying hitting isn’t enough, the Phillies pitching has the potential to be the best in CLB as well. Joe Whaley led the rotation with a superb season keeping his whip under 1 while striking out over 300 hitters. Other rotation members had strong years and possibly impacted a bit by bad luck as well elevating their ERAs. Steve Johnson anchors the bullpen with the best ERA in the NL, and the Phillies pitching overall struckout the most hitters and walked the least in the NL all year. This is an intimidating team to matchup with in the playoffs for sure…

Historically one of CLB’s most decorated franchises, the Giants return to the postseason for the first time in 6 years on the back of a 93 win season. This is a solid team across the board, perhaps lacking the star power of other teams but strong on the fundamentals with good OBP and one of the best defensive lineups in CLB. Hitters were led by the resurgent Juan Rivera bouncing back nicely from a negative WAR season last year, and the excellent debut season from Jesus Valdes in CF. Giants fans are hoping the solid season from Chris Williams is a sign he still has a chance to meet his huge potential going forward. The defensive superstar remains Ignacio Mora who continues his run as the best defensive SS in CLB with a zonal rating up over a ridiculous 27. Mora’s defense remains a huge help for the Giants pitchers who obviously understand this and produce the 2nd most groundballs across CLB. Their flame throwing bullpen was 2nd in the NL in ERA and includes the exciting Kevin Klein proving himself in his first season.

Prediction – Phillies in 4

Playoff Droughts – Good mix of teams have made the playoffs in CLB in recent years (the top 5 the last time i wrote this article have all made it in since then), but several have been waiting a long time to make even a wildcard game. Pirates the only team from the below to change things in the current season. Marlins and Padres sharing top spot.

Team	PO Drought
Padres/Marlins	13 years
Dodgers	9 years
Astros/Rays	8 years
Pirates	6 years

On the other end of the scale, 4 teams are currently riding a 5 season streak of making the playoffs – Phillies/Cardinals/Rockies/Angels – although that will be down to 2 at the end of 2042. Phillies especially worthy of praise for having only missed the playoffs once in the last 15 seasons (what the hell happened in 2036!?).

League Pennant Droughts – Since I last wrote this article, both the Nationals and the Mariners have won their respective leagues for the first time ever. Brewers now waiting the longest for a WS appearance with their only pennant coming when still in the AL back in 1982. No frustration can compare to the Braves who have managed the CLB playoffs 16 times without a pennant to show for it.

Team	Pennant Drought
Brewers	59 years
Reds	51 years
Twins	50 years
Marlins	44 years
Padres	43 years
Braves	42 years

World Series title droughts – In CLB we have had 13 different winners at the end of all things each year, and remarkably have seen 11 different franchises win it all across the last 11 seasons. However there are many teams who have kept their fans in a holding pattern for much longer.

In MLB the Cubs and Astros have both broken their droughts but the real-life Guardians can only dream of the 4 titles held by their CLB counterparts.

Curse of the billy goat still holding strong in CLB up to a whopping 133 years of waiting for those loveable losers. Surely the potential for the most glorious triumph for some lucky new GM in the future? Plenty of teams still waiting for their first title as well, with a few near misses over the years.

CLB Team	WS drought (2042)	MLB Team	WS Drought (2021)
Cubs	133 years	Guardians	73 years
Rangers	80 years*	Rangers	61 years*
Astros	79 years*	Brewers	53 years*
Padres	72 years*	Padres	53 years*
Brewers	72 years*	Mariners	45 years*
Mariners	64 years*	Pirates	42 years

*denotes years since franchise started

You did good.

This is a brief follow up of last year’s posting on Regression Candidates. I used various filters to determine which pitchers were enjoying the best luck at that point in the season. A follow up towards the end of that season found that approximately 2/3 of the listed pitchers performed more poorly in the second half of the year. About 40% of the pitchers experienced extreme regression. Here are the top 10 at the mid-point of the 2038 season.

First, the relevant stats used:
FIP vs ERA
xFIP vs ERA
LOB% (2038 average = 71.8%)
BABIP (2038 average = .299)
HR/FB% (2038 average = 12.1%)

10. Hector Gomez, Jr. – Milwaukee Brewers
ERA: 3.91
FIP: 5.19
xFIP: 5.12
LOB%: 74.8%
BABIP: .260
HR/FB%: 13.2%

9. Dave Jennings, ATL
ERA: 2.90
FIP: 4.15
xFIP: 4.21
LOB%: 80.9%
BABIP: .300
HR/FB%: 12.3%

8. Jing-bo Liao, Philadelphia Phillies
ERA: 2.99
FIP: 3.88
xFIP: 4.30
LOB%: 71.1%
BABIP: .225
HR/FB%: 9.91%

7. Jose Vazquez, KC Royals
ERA: 3.16
FIP: 3.92
xFIP: 4.64
LOB%: 78.5%
BABIP: .297
HR/FB%: 7.5%

6. Jeromino Gonzalez, New York Mets
ERA: 2.31
FIP: 3.15
xFIP: 3.79
LOB%: 82.7%
BABIP: .313
HR/FB%: 7.3%

5. Karp Sahinian, Pittsburgh Pirates
ERA: 3.08
FIP: 3.72
xFIP: 4.64
LOB%: 77.8%
BABIP: 0.271
HR/FB%: 6.2%

4. Hector Sousa, TB Rays
ERA: 3.34
FIP: 4.32
xFIP: 5.07
LOB%: 74.5%
BABIP: .258
HR/FB%: 7.34%

3. Kazuyuki Motsuzuki, LA Angels
ERA: 2.92
FIP: 3.89
xFIP: 4.76
LOB%: 74.4%
BABIP: .241
HR/FB%: 7.1%

2. Ed Owens, Houston Astros
ERA: 3.40
FIP: 4.03
xFIP: 5.17
LOB%: 74.3%
BABIP: .244
HR/FB%: 4.7%

1. Steve Henson, New York Mets
ERA: 3.08
FIP: 5.05
xFIP: 5.32
LOB%: 70.7%
BABIP: .272
HR/FB%: 11.2%

Top 10 worst luck
10. Valerio Canto, BAL
9. Kip Davis, LAD
8. Jim Hastings, LAA
7. Jose Reyes, WAS
6. Antonio Ramirez, COL
5. Angelo Zamora, TOR
4. Jim McFarland, SEA
3. Bob Jackson, MIA
2. Bob Jefferson, PIT
1. Wilfred Simmons, COL