2066 Free Agent Signing Grades

This year we’re doing things a little differently owing to a lack of time. I’m including projections from my spreadsheet and corresponding estimates of contract overall value. Following those are grades and short comments on each deal. I’ve estimated the cost of one WAR in free agency to be about $8.5m (rough, and hopefully I can refine that estimate in future years), and I’ve created a rough aging curve to more accurately estimate contract values over time. Happy reading.

Category I: The Extensions

• Even with a quiet bat the past few years, Crashaw is a 5 WAR player. He’s better than this projection, and if the new ball brings his bat back to life, he’s more than worth this deal.
• My spreadsheet has always loved Watkins, despite his platoon splits. But he finally arrived last year, and he cashed in. I don’t think he’ll be as good as the projection, but Havana had to pony up after last year.

Category II: The Big Bats

• The Dodgers have to spend at some point, and Garza was the premier free agent this year. My spreadsheet is going to be skeptical of first basemen, but Garza has held up over past few years and his bat should dominate for a few more. As you can see from the WRC+ projections, Garza has by far the best bat in the class, and that can cost money. I think the Dodgers could’ve gotten him for a solid $10m per year less, but it matters less since they’re the Dodgers.
• I don’t think Fragoso is a top-15 catcher, given the mediocre defense and a career 97 WRC+. And his contact is declining. He’s getting paid like he’s expected to be an All-Star (lord knows why he’s a two-time All-Star), which he’s not, but given the lack of free agent catchers, I can’t be too harsh.
• Cates‘ market never materialized last year (he didn’t sign until April), so there’s not much reason to think it would have this year. The Orioles were probably bidding against themselves. They’ll squeeze some more value out of him by playing him at 3B, which I think is likely, but Cates’ steep regression last year makes me think he won’t justify this deal.
• Dowsett has a very high floor given his defensive aptitude and versatility; if he even approaches a 100 WRC+, he’ll give you 3 WAR. I love him and Murakami as switchable, high-floor infielders, and the defensive ace prospect Pineiro will join them too to create a very strong infield for the Expos.
• Romo threw up a .315 BABIP, 40 points above league average, last year, which makes me think he’s going to regress a fair amount this year. Still, he’s pulled off a few explosive seasons recently, and I’m okay rolling the dice when the deal only goes three years. The Twins’ infield cupboard was bare, and Romo at least fills a hole while presenting a ton of upside.
• Menefee is Dowsett with more defense and less offense. I love him, and am still hurt he took less money from the Dodgers. But he helps any pitching staff and is one of those guys transforms a defense. The Dodgers need cornerstones, and he will do as much, if not more, to turn the team around as Garza. Miss you Dave <3

Category III: The Big Arms

• Faulkner will look better in San Diego, but he’s been a league-average pitcher over the course of his career (97 FIP-). I agree with the spreadsheet here – there were better options for cheaper.
• Fierro hit free agency at the right time, benefiting greatly from OOTP 22’s lower starter thresholds. He’s likely a solid number two, but he’s getting paid like a rotation frontman.
• Martinez is that rotation frontman, and while he has lost a lot of movement and stamina, I’d still be happy throwing him out as my game 1 ALDS starter. He got basically the same deal as Fierro, and he’s vastly superior.
• Stringfellow’s ceiling remains pretty high, but San Diego basically treated him like an every down running back, and now he’s made of glass. He’s still hurt, which presents some risk that he’ll decline further; however, his $22m a year is cheaper than some worse pitchers got, so I think this deal prices his risk pretty well.
• Daly is in a similar situation as fellow former Oriole Jose Fierro in that he also throws 2.75 pitches and benefitted from OOTP 22. He’s projected to produce similarly, as well, which means he’s probably overpaid given what he can do. Detroit has some promising pitchers moving through the ranks of the farm, so I don’t really understand why they keep throwing big money at midrotation starters in free agency.
• Rowe’s dirty secret is that he’s been declining for years despite only being 31. He’s fine right now (thanks to OOTP 22 classifying guys with 2.75 pitchers as starters), but I think he will decline more quickly than what is above. This isn’t bad money for a 2-3 starter, but he might not fill that role for long.

Category IV: The Middle Rung

• Cole has put together average seasons as a starter, but I (and the spreadsheet) think that he’s been lucky given his movement and fly ball tendencies. His reverse platoon split as a lefty saves him a little and is not picked up by the spreadsheet, but I don’t think he can be counted on to do more than fill out a rotation or be an electric bullpen arm.
• Gray has the high floor that Pittsburgh covets – he’s a durable groundballing lefty with a million pitches who has never put together a below-average season. He’s as dependable of a midrotation arm as you can get, and I think that’s worth paying a little extra for. The year 1 projection is still a little rosy, I think, but he also probably won’t decline so quickly.
• Surprisingly, Nacho’s all-world defense dropped off before his offense. That was his calling card, and without it, he’s an average at best center fielder. That makes this a slight overpay, but at basically two years, it won’t put the Giants in a hole.
• Gutierrez is another former defensive stud whose bat has held up surprisingly well. And, somehow, his projections are almost identical to Nacho’s. But he comes a lot cheaper (albeit with an opt-out), with better baserunning and a superior recent track record. The Yankees don’t need much from him at this price, but he should be at least as good as the departed Jamie Sinclair.
• After years of underperforming his ratings, Collins might have actually overperformed them over the past three years. The spreadsheet thinks he’s about league-average, but I give him the benefit of the doubt and think he’s a good number two starter. The 1+1 structure is nice, since the Mets likely will be trading him, too.
• Fletcher continues to create value in his late 30s, having put up 4 WAR in each of the past two years. He could either help the Mets or be an attractive trade piece (he’s on a 1+1) – his high floor means that he’ll definitely do one of the two.
• Cameron still projects as one of the better catchers in the league. One year is fine for a 39-year-old, and he’ll help the Mets a lot.

Category V: The Bullpen Arms

• England’s deal still looks valuable here even though relievers often don’t look great using dollars/WAR. That shows how good he is when he’s right. Three years (the fourth is a TO) for a guy with such a litany of maladies is a little scary, but this is good value for a high-leverage lefty reliever.
• McGowan is one of the game’s best relievers and has the pitch mix and stamina to be a foundational piece. The deal is also a 1+1, although I can’t imagine the Yankees passing on year 2.
• Gonzalez has been pretty pedestrian the past couple of years after a 4 WAR season in 2063. That season involved some great home run luck, and he’s probably the guy we’ve seen the past couple of years. That’s a nice setup piece, but not worth $12m a year – especially when McGowan and England are going for less.
• Knight put up stellar numbers in front of Arizona’s infield defense, and somehow flew under the radar. He still doesn’t project as a premium option, but he is a proven lefty with 2.5 pitches and a small platoon split, which allows him to see 100 innings a year if needed. He’ll earn this contract due to that combination of quantity and quality. Good on the Yankees for spreading around their money and picking up a lot of contributors for cheap.

Category VI: The Cheaper Starters

• Sinclair’s value is propped up by great baserunning. But, he’s a borderline center fielder whose bat has declined precipitously in the past year. He didn’t get a lot of money, but I don’t think he’ll be justifying a starting spot (unlike his replacement in the Bronx, Enrico Gutierrez).
• Harris doesn’t have the floor Gray has, but Pittsburgh found another dependable arm for great value. He struck out zero batters as a Royal, but being a soft-tossing righty is incredibly difficult in Marvin’s Room (his K rates were markedly better before joining KC).
• Gonzalez’s bat hasn’t slowed over the past couple years, and he still plays a decent corner outfield. This is great money for a player who will almost certainly produce as a starter – even with a .201 BABIP last year, he put up a 101 WRC+ thanks to his power and baserunning. The opt-out limits the value a little, but the overall dollar value makes this a coup.
• Guerrero hasn’t had an above-average season since 2060. He’s a bad back-end starter – the Dodgers could have found someone much better for much cheaper.
• Nelson has never approached the projection I have here. That’s because as a righty sidearmer, he gets eaten alive by lefties (112 FIP- career), and my spreadsheet doesn’t account for arm slot (maybe one day). And, if you were going to choose one ballpark to avoid putting a guy with those splits, it would be Marvin’s Room, where lefties feast. Trade him to The Taco Stand!

Category VII: The Bench Bats

• Vargas is probably closer to his 2065 version than his 2064 version, as his contact has dropped 6 points since last season. He’s still a useful player who can punish lefties and play across first, second and DH. You might get only league-average offense if you play him everyday, like Montreal did, but he can be a force if he’s deployed wisely. However, that makes him a part-time player, and while he’s a potent one, he’s less valuable in that role.
• Jacobs should be a strong-side platoon corner outfielder in Texas, and he’s getting paid appropriately for that role. He should put up above-average offense against righty pitching and good corner defense, making him a valuable roleplayer. He won’t carry Texas into the playoffs, but the Rangers were looking a little thin around Ayala, Foley and Medina, and Jacobs fleshes out the roster.
• Jones neither has the range for second nor the bat for third. He has less than 11 WAR in 8 seasons. He’s a warm body, but I think it’s exceedingly unlikely he’ll provide any value on the field or in a trade for the Mets.
• Bell is a below-average player with a very below-average personality. With greater corner defense, good baserunning and no platoon split, he has a high enough floor that he can be counted on for 1-2 WAR. Like I said above, that’s valuable on a thin squad like the Rangers. But, if the season goes south, he could wreck a locker room full of young, impressionable players.
• Rodriguez hopefully won’t see any time at short, where he’s dismal. I’d expect he plays mostly at second, since Kyoji mans third. He’ll still be a slight negative in the field there; coupled with a below-average bat, he’s not contributing much. The dollar value isn’t too bad for a bench utility player, but I don’t think the player option was necessary.