2067 Free Agent Signing Grades

I’m including projections from my spreadsheet and corresponding estimates of contract overall value. They are a little wonky this year – still calibrating for the new ball. Following those are grades and short comments on each deal. I’ve estimated the cost of one WAR in free agency to be about $8.5m (rough, and hopefully I can refine that estimate in future years), and I’ve created a rough aging curve to more accurately estimate contract values over time. Happy reading.

Category I: The Big Tickets

• McGowan got some guff for getting starter money, but I think he’ll be a slightly above-average starter for the next year or two, thanks to OOTP 22’s changed classifications. Now, does that mean he’s worth $24m a year for five years at age 35? Nope!
• Petty has been a dependable second starter during his time in the Bronx, and he’ll earn this contract as long as he keeps that up. I think he will – he’s one of the few starters in the league who kept his strikeout rate up following the introduction of the new ball, which is a very good sign. Vela will be forced to play first base full-time for the first time in his career, which promises to be ugly. His bat is certainly incredible, but his value will be dragged way down by bad defense. That makes this a big overpay, and I hate the opt-out and player option; I don’t think anyone, bar the White Sox, was interested in a price close to this.
• Laity, on the other hand, is a real first baseman who can play the field enough to practically guarantee his team three WAR. He’s only 31, and is a better bet to produce at his position than any other 1B or DH signed this offseason.
• Ito is no longer the surefire Hall of Famer he appeared to be in his first years in the league. He’s now merely a good defensive corner outfielder with some pop, albeit one with injury concerns and a spotty recent offensive track record. $15m won’t break the bank, and he’s only 26, but he’s not going to be any sort of centerpiece for the Soto-led Sox over the next few years.
• Araneta also got paid starter money despite historically being a reliever, but unlike McGowan, he’s not even a real starter. Expect below-average production from him, even though he’s getting paid like a second or third starter. These types of moves will set the Sox back for many years.

Category II: The Mid-Rotation Starters

• Henry might have been the best starter available; he’s been steadily above-average over the course of his career and his ratings have held up in his early 30s. He’s vulnerable in the postseason as a split-happy sidearmer, but he can suffice as a good second starter in the regular season.
• Despite what his ratings and my spreadsheet say, Nelson has never been good. In fact, he’s never put up an above-average season as a starter. He’s probably a fourth starter, and while $12m isn’t crazy money, it would’ve been pretty easy to find a comparable pitcher for much cheaper.
• Martinez has hit his stride in Montreal, posting an 89 FIP- as an Expo. There aren’t any red flags suggesting he can’t keep that up, and that’s definitely worth third starter money.
• Williams has a much worse track record than Martinez, despite the similar projections; he’s struggled to be any better than average over the past couple of years. I think he’s probably comfortable at the back of the rotation, so this is a bit of an overpay.
• The rest of the league has seem to caught on to how bad Elliott is due to his movement, as his former squad in Toronto seems to have been the only team willing to take him on at starter money. However, his movement has boosted a little over the past couple of years, so maybe he can repeat last season, where he was a league-average starter.
• Salazar is a dependable average starter who has aged like fine wine. He’ll stabilize a young rotation as a Captain, and most teams would fork over $10m for that.

Category III: The Everyday Bats

• Ohayashi finally put his offense together last year, and if that’s permanent, he’s a useful superutility player who could rack up WAR around the field. The Dodgers are paying for that version, and I’m still a little bearish that we’ll see that version again (mostly because I was there for the ugly years).
• Rincon represents Mito’s 90th-percentile outcome, I think. Toronto is right to give him a full-time role, and as a younger player on a smaller deal than Mito, I prefer this deal a lot.
• Hunter was the only catcher on the market, and he raked last year. But, he’s probably not good (look at that WRC+ projection!), and Oakland could’ve gotten a similar player as a minor league free agent, I’m sure.
• At 37, Stokes still hits and holds down 2B. He’s wrecked, but he’s played over 300 games the past two years. Can’t really ask for more! And, on a 1+1, if he does fall apart, the White Sox can get out of this one pretty easily. Yes, I’m surprised I liked a White Sox deal too.
• Unlike Stokes, Arline might not be long for second base, but his bat should play at first, if necessary. I think the new ball will do a lot for his contact-oriented approach.
• Sousa will probably disappoint as a starter, as neither his bat nor glove sets him apart. His salary is fine for a bench piece, but he’s not quite fungible enough defensively to play a good utility role.
• Nakashima always performs but never gets respect come free agency. I think he deserves some, with the ability to play a decent center field, fine offense, and good wheels. And the 1+1 limits downside while preserving upside in case Nakashima puts up an All-Star season.
• I don’t understand why Gonzales’s defensive numbers were so poor at short last year (-2.7 ZR), but his ratings suggest he’s still a Gold Glover at that position. When you get that, an 80 WRC+ is even welcome, and that kind of security blanket surrounded by Texas’s bats is useful on a 1+1.
• Fisher is a serviceable two-way outfielder getting paid like the lower-end starter he is. No complaints here.
• Salazar waited until age 34 to hit, thanks to the new ball. He should continue to put up good offense, and as long as he can survive at second, that’s worth $12m a year. And if he can’t, he’s on a 1+1.

Category IV: The 1B/DHs

• Aidan’s hitting ratings have declined to the point where he’s no longer one of the best DHs in the league. He’s probably closer to the middle of the pack, and the 12th-best DH in the league probably costs much less.
• If Aidan has declined to the 12th-best DH, Moore is now a below-average one, and is getting paid more per year.
• Moreno is a solid 1B, but Dewitt and Carr’s deals show this deal was above the market rate for an inferior player.
• Carr sported one of the best bats of any free agent this year, and while $17m is pricy for a 34-year-old trending toward DH, the 1+1 makes this an attractive deal for a Cards team that will probably be looking to move him.
• I think Dewitt is the best player of the bunch here, and comes on the cheapest deal. As a 1B, he won’t change the Sox’ fortunes too much, but he could be a nice trade piece.

Category V: The One-Year Guys

• Fletcher keeps on producing, having put up at least three WAR in each of his past five seasons. His ratings haven’t decreased much, meaning he should do the same next year. A surefire 3-4 WAR is a good use of $23m.
• Kodo is another high-floor vet at the hot corner, having put up at least a 113 WRC+ in each of the past eight seasons. He probably won’t produce as well as Fletcher this year, but should be a solid trade piece at least.
• Marvin has had an incredible late-career renaissance. He won’t change a team’s trajectory as much as the above 3Bs, so $20m is a little steep, however.
  Melton’s offensive ratings tanked last year, so he’s probably more of a defense-first average CF than the two-way star he used to be.
• Johnson is probably the best defensive 3B around, and the spreadsheet underrates his defense. That gives him a high floor and a pillar for a rebuilding Cincy squad to rely on.
• Lovos is probably more of a 1B/3B/DH at this point rather than a full-time 3B. Regardless, he should provide some pop at a cheap price.
• Like Lovos, Poole is probably playing the field part-time, but he can mash better than any other non-1B/DH available.
• As a lefty 3B with meh defense, Choi closely resembles Kodo. He’s older, but cheaper.
  Snyder can’t field much anymore, and his bat isn’t quite good enough to justify him being played at DH. One year isn’t going to set the Mets back, but he probably won’t be helping their young core much, and I bet they have three better young outfielders chomping at the bit already.

Category VI: The Relievers

• Not many relievers deserve extended eight-figure deals, but den Braber is a real one. He kills righties (career 1.97 FIP) without relying electric stuff, which suggests he may age well despite his fragility.
• Medina is no den Braber, but he’s probably an average closer getting paid average closer money. I have some concern about how he’ll age as a 32-year-old power pitcher.
• Slaughter is a solid lefty reliever who has been a stable piece in Texas’s pen. Boston is building its pen from the ground up, and nabbing proven commodities like Slaughter for reasonable prices is a great way to do that.
• Sims has declined pretty hard since he signed his deal with Boston, but the ex-Brewer had a long track record of late-inning success until recently. The Sox were right to bet on that track record, and they still won’t get burned too badly, since the deal is a 1+1. $10m would have been great value for a premier setup guy.

Category VII: The Bench Bats

• Hirosei has no track record, having come over from Japan this offseason. His bat should play, but his lack of range in the fielder probably makes him a fourth outfielder at best. $6.3m a year for a solid fourth outfielder is fine, but this signing has a pretty low ceiling.
• Coleman got a bit more per year than Hirose, but he’s a potential low-end starter with no real holes. He doesn’t have much of a platoon split, has adequate defensive ratings for a corner outfield spot, and does well on the bases. This is a low-risk signing for a two-WAR player – not sexy, but serviceable.
• Colorado’s happy to reunite with Perkins after he put up an impressive 3.4 WAR in Denver last year. He probably won’t mash like that again, but getting average offense from a guy who can play six positions is no doubt welcome. He’ll fill a lot of holes for the Rockies on this 1+1 deal.