Top 10 Surprises of 2026
We’re only halfway through the season, but at some point we have to start saying that lone data points are trends. Despite many people saying that there’s no way Dallas would stay in second, they’re still in second. Despite many people saying that Portland would be close to relegation, they’re in a distant 10th place in the PL. Despite many people saying that I would get back with my wife, she still left me dumped outside the local Italian restaurant and I have yet to see her again*.
With that being said, here are your top 10 surprises (so far) of 2026:
10. The Difference Between Salt Lake City and Bay Area
Recall back a year ago, where Bay Area and SLC were in a tight race for first place in the Bronze League. Both teams had drastically different approaches to the game – Bay Area was focused on limiting runs, whereas SLC could mash any team out of the park – but nobody predicted the vast differences between the two teams this season. Perhaps it was simply seeing them duel head to head at the end of the season that left some thinking that, hey, these two teams should survive with about the same record in the next season.
That couldn’t be any more different.
Salt Lake City is currently in last place, with a 27-59 record. Bay Area, currently tied for first, has a 55-31 record.
To be honest, we should have seen SLC’s eventual demise sooner. They weren’t projected to be near the top of the BL in the 2025 season, and, with their team age, should have been due for a major regression pitching wise. They’ve struggled on the mound, to say the least, giving up the most runs of any team in the SL. The Pandas, though, lead us into surprise number nine…
9. Bay Area’s Rise
Flash back to the preseason predictions with me:
OSA had Bay Area third.
The GMs had Bay Area fifth.
Bay Area is currently tied for first with a seven game lead over third.
Their rise is simple enough to dissect – a great pitching staff, bullpen, and defense have all chipped in the lead the league in fewest runs given up. And look at the bullpen ERA – 2.08!
8. Cincinnati’s Draft Day Blitz
Cincy had all the pieces they needed heading into the draft to make a splash. Plenty of first round picks built up from trading back, loaning pieces, and making trades to teams who needed star pieces. However, nobody saw what would have happened on draft day except for, perhaps, Cincy’s GM himself.
Maybe even he didn’t see it coming.
The stars aligned, however, and left Cincy with both the first and second overall picks in the draft. Time will only tell whether or not Chad Armbruster and Chase Gumbrecht will pay off for the unimaginable move on that day.
7. Austin’s Fall
This was by far the easiest one to see coming – the GMs and OSA predicted a rough season – but it still was weird seeing a team that had played in the promotion series a year earlier falling without an end in sight. It’s been pretty bad for Austin this season, scoring both 9th out of 10 teams in both runs scored and runs given up. Austin seems destined to head to the Bronze League next season, beginning a rebuild that never officially started but never officially ended as well.
6. Iowa’s Competitiveness
Iowa was projected 5th by the GMs and 3rd by OSA. Regardless, nobody saw them in second place at the beginning of August, and, had it not been for Brooklyn’s 10 game winning streak, they’d be leading the league. It’s started with their combination of contact and speed – leading the league in both batting average and stolen bases, and also lead the league in on base percentage. As always, their pitching has been great, giving up the third fewest runs per game as well.
5. The Premier League Youth Movement
You knew coming into the season that Angelo Underhill would be considered the favorite for MVP. The top six leaders in WAR in the Premier League this season are all 27 or younger. The top six players in OPS+ in the Premier League are all 27 or younger. It’s a young man’s game, and teams are being built to stay in the Premier League for years to come.
4. Lack of Trade Deadline Movement
Sure, Portland had a faulty fax machine and couldn’t get any deals done. However, of all the deals made on deadline day, only DC made any – and all three were to get their prospects playing time at the major league level. Florida made some pretty good moves – getting some players on loans as well as netting Henry Gonzalez from Miami – but no other teams made more than one deal.
3. DC’s Rise to the Top
DC had a wide range of different opinions heading into the season. OSA had them third, while the GMs had them on the relegation bubble.
They currently have the best Pythagorean record in the Premier League.
It’s been a uni1ue blend of pitching and offense that’s gotten them through the season. They have given up the fewest runs, have the lowest starter’s ERA, and have the best defensive efficiency in the Premier League, which helps them out. Their offense is 8th in home runs, but first in batting average and stolen bases, and third in runs scored and on base percentage. It’ll be interesting to see if they can keep it up through the rest of the season, having lost a good chunk of their starting rotation at points and having an injury prone team.
2. Free Agency Impact
It’d be a little petty to think that Free Agency doesn’t have any effect on the league – in fact, it has a major effect on competitiveness – but nobody saw just how much of an impact this year’s Free Agency has left on the shape of the league. Denver’s Jordan Gutierrez leads the league in Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, WAR, and second in OPS+. Arizona’s revamped bullpen currently leads the league in Bullpen ERA. Detroit’s Jose Guzman leads the Premier League in pitcher’s WAR. Plenty of guys are making an impact for their new teams this season.
1. Portland’s Fall
Portland should have been a good team. Think about the rotation, with Brad Limbach, Neil Hinz, Ricky Colon, and others. The bullpen had Neil Kack and Vince Buckley. They have Brett Mandel, Soong-yong Kim, and Miguel Gutierrez in the lineup.
Somehow, that’s translated into a 21-65 record. Giving up the most runs and scoring the second fewest runs definitely has not been the way most thought the season would turn out for Portland. Throw in the fact that they are the oldest team in the league and, well, the future needs to change for Portland if they want to make it back to the Premier League soon.