Player: 2B Josh Phillips
Team: DET
Contract: 6/$144m (Year 6 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .240/.306/.370 (3.01 WAR/600)
Grade: C-
Phillips gets a teary-eyed farewell from a thankful Brewers GM here. While I thought Phillips would cash in, I didn’t expect him to get the richest deal in free agency this year, but I can’t say he doesn’t deserve a six-figure contract. In true Brewers fashion, Phillips is a jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He’s an above-average defender at each of the bases, and has filled in adequately at shortstop in limited spells. He steals bases well, has a tiny platoon split and hits surprisingly well (122 OPS+ in Milwaukee). He hasn’t declined, and at age 31, I suspect him put up 3-4 WAR for the next few years, and maybe 2-3 after that. It pains me to say it, but at about $6-10m per win, I don’t think Phillips will quite live up to this deal. On top of that, I don’t know that a team like Detroit who finished with the worst record in the league last year will be in a position to maximize the rest of Phillips’ prime.
Player: SP Oscar Fisher
Team: DET
Contract: 6/$120m (Opt-out after Year 4)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 5.0/1.8/1.1 (2.47 WAR/200)
Grade: C-
The Tigers were unexpectedly generous this offseason, first backing up the Brinks truck for Phillips and then opening up the checkbook for former Cardinals mainstay (and Brewers farmhand) Oscar Fisher. At first blush, Fisher looks like a premier free agent, with a few four-win seasons under his belt, an important role in an all-time rotation and iron man status. However, Fisher has been merely average over the past couple of years, with a 101 FIP- each year, and my spreadsheet sees him as worthy of a 95 FIP-, or slightly above-average production, next year. He’s lost some movement, but should be an average or slightly above-average pitcher over most of this deal. But, at $20m a year, that’s a slight overpay, especially for a team that likely won’t be in contention soon. I see the Fisher and Phillips signings as similar – two non-star above-average players signed to big, long-term deals on a rebuilding team.
Player: SP Kris Rowe
Team: CWS
Contract: 5/$115m (Year 4, 5 PO, opt-out after Year 3)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 6.5/2.8/1.0 (2.74 WAR/200)
Grade: D+
Rowe is younger and better than Fisher right now, and his overall deal is smaller. But, he scares me a heck of a lot more, and I don’t expect him to age well. Despite being in his 20s, he’s steadily losing stuff, and given that his curveball is only rated 63 currently, he will lose his starter tag if it falls more than a couple of points. I do kind of like how the Sox cornered a thin starting pitcher market this offseason, spinning a rotation out of whole cloth. But I would’ve sat the Rowe sweepstakes out, since I think he’s going to fall off soon.
Player: LF Norm Campbell
Team: PIT
Contract: 6/$108m (Year 6 TO; opt-out after Year 4)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .252/.299/.403 (2.21 WAR/600)
Grade: B
Nobody values a high floor like Pittsburgh. Campbell is only 28, has a great makeup, and provides plus corner defense and baserunning. And he probably hit his ceiling last year – in an overlooked year on the Padres, Campbell finally was a full-time starter, barely missing out on a 30/30 season and putting up over 4 WAR primarily in center field (which would have been higher if he played in the corner for the whole season). If Pittsburgh gets that version of Campbell, this deal will be a great one, and that might not be so farfetched. His ratings are steadily improving, and Campbell’s peripheral stats were not far out of line with his career stats (his BABIP last year was actually lower than his career BABIP). His defense and baserunning puts his floor at about 2 wins, and another few 4-WAR seasons is not out of the question. All that said, I don’t think anyone else was looking to pay Campbell six figures, so I do think this deal could’ve been a four-year, $60 million deal without an opt-out.
Player: 1B Gyu-Sik Chon
Team: ATL
Contract: 5/$84m (Year 5 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .258/.340/.432 (2.95 WAR/600)
Grade: B+
Atlanta is in full rebuild mode, so you know that they signed Vapor-Lock looking to trade him down the line. Chon was an incredibly complete player during his MVP-caliber years, but his power has declined to the point where he’s now merely an All-Star-caliber first baseman. But, he’s still a pretty complete hitter, and even with almost no power last year (a .375 slugging percentage) he mustered a 114 WRC+ and 3.4 WAR. Atlanta did a great job making this deal marketable: the deal is frontloaded, placing 50 percent of the salary in the first two years, and has a team option on the last year. It also helps to have a popular fan favorite on your squad when rebuilding, and I think Chon was a great target for a rebuilding team looking to flip an asset for prospects. There is some risk that Chon will continue his early decline, and that this contract won’t entice any contenders later, but it’s definitely worth the gamble for the Braves.
Player: SS David Gonzales
Team: BOS
Contract: 4/$79m (Year 4 TO; opt-out after Year 1)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .235/.315/.366 (2.89 WAR/600)
Grade: C-
The other former Dodger star to find a home back east this offseason, Gonzales has retained his defensive excellence despite his bat slowing. He tops 20 zone runs (or about 2 WAR with defense alone) a season with ease at the game’s premium defensive position. He’s got six Gold Gloves and has amassed 55 WAR by age 34, and it’s reasonable to think he should be a Hall of Famer. I think Gonzales is still good for at least 3 WAR a year, largely thanks to defense, which at shortstop is probably worth close to $20m a year. To Boston’s credit, the deal is front-loaded ($25m in year 1) and has a team option at the end. There’s one thing that absolutely kills this deal – the opt-out. As a rebuilding team, Boston’s job is to sign players to marketable deals, and an opt-out after Year 1 largely destroys its marketability. If Gonzales hits well and is on pace for 6 WAR, he still won’t fetch too high of a price at the deadline because buyers will devalue Gonzales because of the uncertainty about whether he will opt out or not. If he’s good, a buyer would probably want him to opt in, and he’ll probably opt out; if he’s bad, there won’t be any buyers anyway. Either way Boston won’t get much. Such a small term unfortunately has a huge impact – don’t include opt-outs unless it’s the only way you’ll get a star!
Player: SP Dan Murphy
Team: CWS
Contract: 4/$69.7m (Year 4 PO; Opt-out after Year 2)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 5.4/3.2/0.8 (2.25 WAR/200)
Grade: C-
The second piece in the White Sox’ rotation overhaul is Murphy. Murphy is an inferior pitcher to Rowe, but he’s improving (particularly his movement, which has jumped by four points in the past year) instead of declining. It’s still big money for a guy with a career 101 FIP-; even in his best seasons, he’s performed like an average second starter, with a 90 FIP-. The terms are onerous as well – functionally two player options limit the deal’s upside. Murphy isn’t putting the Sox over the edge into contention, so I don’t see the point of doing this much to hamstring yourself to get from 76 to 79 wins. There’s a tiny chance he continues to boost and turns into a consistent number two guy, but that feels pretty remote. (Also – he strikes out six per nine and throws 101 miles per hour. That’s so sad!)
Player: DH Ron Moore
Team: CIN
Contract: 4/$69m (Year 4 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .244/.305/.482 (3.04 WAR/600)
Grade: A-
Moore lucked out as the premier designated hitter on the market in the year where 16 teams suddenly needed DHs. Last year’s down season didn’t scare away Cincy, who saw his 142 WRC+ and 143 home runs over the previous four seasons and rightly wanted to plop him in Great American Ballpark. He’ll fit in like a glove both due to the ballpark and Cincy’s focus on offense, and a lineup with Dixon, Moore and Marvin back-to-back-to-back will not be a welcome sight for NL pitchers. What amounts to a three-year deal for less than $20m a year for such a significant offensive upgrade is worth the money, even if Cincy might have also benefited from spreading the money around a couple of starters.
Player: SP Augusto Medrano
Team: TEX
Contract: 3/$60m
Expected park-neutral slash line: 6.6/2.7/1.1 (2.44 WAR/200)
Grade: B-
Texas brought in long-time Met Augusto Medrano this offseason to take the spot of Dan Murphy. The $20m price tag is a hefty one for a mid-rotation starter, and I have some Kris Rowe-like concerns that his third pitch will decline to the point where he loses his starter tag. But, he has the longest track record of being an above-average starter, Texas seems to have money to throw around, and a shorter deal at a higher AAV is probably preferable to a longer deal for pitchers in their 30s. Texas needed pitching to build on last year’s surprise performance, and had to get it somewhere.
Player: C Jim Cameron
Team: COL
Contract: 2/$58m (Year 2 TO; opt-out after Year 1)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .232/.301/.387 (2.65 WAR/600)
Grade: B-
I was proven wrong regarding Cameron last year, when the White Sox were able to move him on a large deal for prospects. Colorado will likely try to do the same, much as they did with veteran Paora Leonani last year on a sizeable 1+1 deal. Like Paora, Cameron plays a premium position well and could easily be a dependable piece for a contender. The major difference in those deals is the opt-out Cameron has after the first year (as well as a team option, creating a functional mutual option). That’s weird! To save space, I will refer you to the Gonzales write-up if you want to understand why this reduces the value of Cameron as an asset. There’s something to be said for the team option on the second year, which gives teams some say in what happens in the second year. In sum, this is everything I love (1+1 deals) and everything I hate (unnecessary opt-outs) all in one package.
Player: 1B Robby White
Team: BOS
Contract: 2/$55m (Year 2 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .260/.342/.430 (3.39 WAR/600)
Grade: B
White continued his Hall of Fame career apace last year in New York with 6.0 WAR, his best season in half a decade, and now cashes in with division rival Boston. We are very unlikely to see a repeat, however, as White has declined significantly since the beginning of last year (contact down 7 points). Boston did what it could to make this deal marketable with the 1+1 format and frontloading the deal, and I still think someone should bite at the trade deadline. But, the large salary might result in Boston having to either eat money (which shouldn’t be a problem) or accept a slightly more paltry return. I like the idea here, but I don’t think it will work out quite as well as hoped given White’s slide.
Player: LF Enrico Castillo
Team: SFG
Contract: 4/$54.5m (Year 4 PO; opt-out after Year 3)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .252/.306/.414 (2.78 WAR/600)
Grade: B-
Castillo has been a consistent performer over the past few years, garnering an All-Star appearance and almost 10 WAR across the past three. That’s fine – the prospect of getting close to All-Star-level performance for about $13m a year (especially next to two consistent producers in the outfield) is good, especially for a Giants team that has a few holes to fill before it probably can make another deep playoff run. I do have some qualms with the way the contract is structured. Both the player option on the last year and the escalating nature of the deal misalign value with production, and the Giants will likely find themselves in the unenviable position of writing a washed-up Castillo a big check right when their payroll is ballooning due to having to pay Vickers, Maloyan and company big arb raises or extensions.
Player: 1B Tynan Mooney
Team: CLE
Contract: 3/$48m (Year 3 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .262/.344/.431 (2.21 WAR/600)
Grade: B
Following a career year in Montreal, Mooney’s ratings dropped precipitously this offseason. It’s too difficult to reconstruct the timeline of when Cleveland offered him his deal and whether Cleveland should have seen the declining ratings, but it does seem that he was dropping pretty fast by December, and Cleveland didn’t sign him until late February. So, I’ll apportion a fair amount of the blame to Cleveland, but I don’t know exactly how much. Mooney has gone from awesome first baseman to platoon DH in a couple of months, which is unfortunate because the DH spot in Cleveland is filled by cement-shoes Jon Hernandez and Mooney would have rounded out an extremely potent offense well. This is still a declining deal with a team option at the end – what has happened to Mooney is exactly why you do declining deals and team options – so Cleveland isn’t too hosed by the deal. $16m a year now represents an overpay for current Mooney, but would have been fine based on past performance and will not hose Cleveland too much.
Player: SS Steve Weaver
Team: CWS
Contract: 4/$46m (Year 4 PO, opt-out after Year 2)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .201/.276/.365 (2.55 WAR/600)
Grade: B+
Bargain-bin David Gonzales is still a great player – like Gonzales, the Sox can count on 2 WAR just from his defense and a security blanket for some questionable pitching (see above). Maybe I’m high on Weaver but I’m surprised Chicago nabbed him at just over $11m per year, as I think he can make a pitching staff and an infield defense good on his own. This grade would be an A but for two reasons. First, I still think Chicago is misguided in its free agency-heavy approach, and is pretty far from a playoff spot despite spending big money; therefore, despite a good individual signing, I question the overall premise. Second, the two player options reduce the value of the contract, especially if when the South Siders need to pull the plug on this squad – I would rather have Weaver for a straight $60m over four years than what we have here.
Player: SS Norberto Miranda
Team: BOS
Contract: 2/$45m (Year 2 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .223/.323/.349 (2.69 WAR/600)
Grade: B-
Boston remained on the 1+1 grind when signing Miranda, rightly trying to use its vast reserves to sign useful players to tradeable contracts. Miranda is a useful player, I guess – he’s no longer a starting shortstop defensively, but he’s probably an okay second baseman. He finally hit a bit last year in Washington after a mediocre showing in Vegas, and I think it’s fair to expect a slightly below-average slash line from him at this age. So, to recap: we have average defense at second and slightly below average offense for…$22.5m a year? That’s what I think buyers are going to say when Boston slides into their DMs offering Miranda, and Boston is going to have to retain a lot of money to get anything back. And nobody’s going to pick up that team option. Boston will get a slight return, but even with the 1+1, I wouldn’t term this a tradeable deal.
Player: SP Josh Harris
Team: KC
Contract: 3/$45m (Year 3 PO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 4.7/1.9/1.0 (2.47 WAR/200)
Grade: A-
Harris had a great contract year last season, posting a lower ERA than teammates Mitch Welch and Jose Gonzales. His control rating has actually improved since the end of last season, and KC hopes he can continue to post miniscule walk rates and high ground ball rates in Marvin’s Room over the next few years. He’s a great match for the park, as he’s a righty who doesn’t get get beat up by left-handed batters and keeps the ball on the ground. He’ll be an overqualified fourth starter in KC’s up-and-coming rotation, and KC might have nabbed the best pitcher on the market for $15m a year. The player option might not be fun at age 35 and Harris might lose his starter tag if his stuff drops at all, but he’s a luxury the Royals can afford with Marvin’s Room finally paid off.
Player: RF Jon Hall
Team: BOS
Contract: 3/$39m (Year 3 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .234/.298/.422 (1.94 WAR/600)
Grade: B-
Hall is another defensively-challenged corner outfielder who should see his value climb due to the advent of DH in the NL. He showed what he could do as a full-time DH last year in Marvin’s Room, hitting 40 bombs and amassing 3.1 WAR while playing in every game. Fenway isn’t Marvin’s Room, but Hall should produce a couple of WAR each of the next couple of years. This being the Sox, however, all that matters is how tradeable this contract is. $13m per year is a bit rich for a slightly above-average DH with big platoon splits, but maybe my gut feeling doesn’t properly account for the increase in demand by NL teams. Atlanta netted a couple of 50ish POT prospects in exchange for a much cheaper Hall a couple of years back, and unless Hall continues to rake like last year, I suspect that’s the ceiling on any return for Boston. That’s okay, and there probably weren’t more enticing options, but frontloading this deal or offering a slightly smaller deal (I think Hall would’ve taken somewhere around $30m) would have obviously helped out more. Or even going after the next guy instead…
Player: DH Tim Estes
Team: NYM
Contract: 2/$38m (Year 2 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .256/.321/.435 (2.03 WAR/600)
Grade: A-
Estes is a better DH than Hall and is on a better contract, when looking at guaranteed money. He has a much smaller platoon split, has captain traits and hasn’t been on the IL in 10 years. With a cumulative 124 WRC+ and ne’er a season below 107, the Mets can count on him as they seek to climb back into the playoffs. What’s more is the 1+1 structure represents great planning – a large part of this coming season will involve negotiating a huge extension for Ken Robinson, and the Mets will need all of the financial flexibility they can get. The only critique I have is that the deal seems like a slight overpay, as he doesn’t seem to be highly valued around the league (his last deal was a mere 1 year, $4.5m pact with the Pirates). But overall, this might be one of the most impactful signings of the offseason.
Player: SP Clarence Hernandez
Team: NYM
Contract: 2/$34.4m (Year 2 PO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 7.6/2.7/1.3 (2.26 WAR/200)
Grade: B
Like Tynan Mooney, Hernandez unfortunately declined precipitously this offseason. But, looking at the development logs, it seems that the Mets offered on Hernandez before he fell off a cliff (he lost velocity on December 10th, and accepted the Mets’ offer on Christmas Day), so you can’t hold the Mets accountable for what happened after the offer. Despite huge splits, Hernandez has been solidly above-average throughout his career; those splits, however, likely have prevented him from being an All-Star-caliber pitcher over the past 7-8 years. Pre-decline Hernandez slotted nicely alongside sophomore Loren Cupit and mainstay Charlie Richardson as the third above-average starter the Mets needed to compete. $17m a year was/is a bit rich for that role, but the Mets somehow maximize every flawed player’s potential and the deal is only 2 years long, which made the deal a net positive for the Mets. Now? As long as Hernandez doesn’t decline much more, he can at least hold up the back end of the rotation or serve as an electric bullpen piece against righties, which will still have some utility to the Mets.
Player: LF Tommy Cramer
Team: COL
Contract: 2/$32.8m (Year 2 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .244/.312/.407 (2.65 WAR/600)
Grade: A-
It’s hard to remember, but Cramer was a young star, putting up 30 WAR in 6 years in Milwaukee. He only just regained that form in his contract year last season, putting up 3.5 WAR and a 128 WRC+ for a juggernaut Expos offense. Colorado did what they do, offering Cramer a high-AAV 1+1 hoping he produces and attracts some interest from contenders. While the 35-year-old’s ratings have declined a big, I expect his well-rounded bat will look good in Coors, especially because the deal is front-loaded. The AAV is a little high, but I think there’s a strong chance Colorado will get a decent package for Cramer this year.
Player: SS Steve Green
Team: CIN
Contract: 2/$30m
Expected park-neutral slash line: .228/.287/.377 (2.51 WAR/600)
Grade: C-
Steve Green resembles Norberto Miranda – not enough of a bat for second or third base, and not enough defense to be a shortstop. Instead, you get a below-average two-way player, never broaching 3 WAR despite overall ratings in the 60s. He appears to be destined for shortstop in Cincinnati, with Choi and Camacho on either side of him, but those -13 zone runs at short last year aren’t going anywhere. And, if he is destined for second while Camacho slides over, I think his bat will disappoint. I would have much preferred finding a Quad-A defensive stud to plug in at short and saving $30m – I think the Reds would be just as good, and $30m richer.
Player: 3B Cesar Contreras
Team: SFG
Contract: 2/$27m (Year 2 PO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .215/.277/.371 (2.12 WAR/600)
Grade: C
Based on sentimentality, Contreras heading back to the Giants gets an A+ and the ribbon for my favorite signing of the offseason. Based, on boring old objectivity, Contreras is a declining 38-year-old who is a low-end starter. Above-average defense (+5 ZR last year, projected by my Excel sheet for +3 this year) allows him to start despite low contact. Given the surfeit of third base options for cheap (see what Boston did with Ben Hoffman, for instance), this is a substantial overpay, especially with a guaranteed year at age 39. But, I would hate to see the future Hall of Famer Contreras play elsewhere, especially after bringing a ring home to San Francisco a couple of years back.
Player: DH Robby Matthews
Team: SEA
Contract: 2/$24m (Year 2 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .256/.349/.412 (2.44 WAR/600)
Grade: B+
“Jellyroll” has had seasons where his bat just doesn’t have as much pop, and last year, where he failed to slug even .400, was one of them. He’s not as dependable as his ratings make him appear, but he’s also capable of getting hot for extended periods. That might be a little less likely now that his contact and power have dropped off a bit, but that bat is still worth $12m a year for most teams. He might be worth a bit less to Seattle who already has two satisfactory DHs in their lineup who might not survive at first. Assuming Seattle can swap one of them (preferably Esteban Alvarez, who also hits from the left side) for a more sure-footed first basemen, I think this type of move keeps Seattle on top of the AL West.
Player: 2B Antonio Deras
Team: CHC
Contract: 2/$22m (Year 2 TO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .242/.320/.356 (1.46 WAR/600)
Grade: A-
:rotating_light: :rotating_light: :rotating_light: I like a Cubs deal!!! :rotating_light: :rotating_light: :rotating_light: Deras is a fine hitter who has a strange defensive ratings profile that prevents him from playing any position very well. He has a career 114 WRC+ to his name with occasional seasons where he hits well enough to justify playing second (which turned him into two top-50 prospects for the Brewers, once upon a time). That type of possibility is worth rolling the dice for a rebuilding team like the Cubs, who may find themselves with a desirable 1+1 frontloaded contract if Deras hits. That’s especially true this year, where Deras could find additional work as an NL DH who can actually hit lefties and play in the field in a pinch.
Player: 1B Esteban Rodriguez
Team: VBJ
Contract: 1/$20m
Expected park-neutral slash line: .245/.320/.414 (2.02 WAR/600)
Grade: A
Rodriguez was the more dependable part of Cleveland’s first baseman/DH rotation with Robby Matthews last year, and put up his sixth season of at least 3 WAR in 7 years. Vegas knows he’s dependable: he’s never posted below a 117 WRC+, probably largely thanks to a small platoon split. And, they have money, so overpaying a surefire veteran like Rodriguez to help usher your young team toward playoff contention is a no-brainer. With any luck, Rodriguez will bash his 400th home run this year and Vegas will see its first playoff berth since its dynasty in the 2050s (7 100-win seasons in 9 years, lest we forget).
Player: RP Dan Gross
Team: LAA
Contract: 2/$19.4m (Year 2 VO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 8.9/2.3/1.3 (0.42 WAR/70)
Grade: A
And now we turn to the reliever part of our program (man – it’s nice to have not seen any relievers yet). Sure, Gross isn’t a top-three reliever in the league anymore, after some velocity drops, but reports of his death have been greatly exaggerated. He’s lost almost no movement, and his control has increased. He also has lost nothing off of his main pitch – a deadly changeup that makes fools out of lefties and righties – since it doesn’t depend on velocity to be effective. As long as his decline doesn’t affect those ratings, he’s still going to be a late-inning force and a top-25 reliever. His contract is perfectly appropriate for that level of production, and should attract lots of interest if the Angels scuffle this year.
Player: CF Darryl Shoemaker
Team: TOR
Contract: 2/$18m (Year 2 PO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .232/.287/.375 (2.22 WAR/600)
Grade: C-
To say Shoemaker didn’t make it work in St. Louis would be an understatement. He posted an 8 WRC+ in a quarter of a season. 8. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’ll be better in Toronto. He’s not a bad player overall, with a career 92 WRC+ and good to very good outfield defense, but his contact is steadily slipping and he’s not an ace in center field anymore. He’s an average fourth outfielder at best, and coming off such a horrendous year, I doubt teams were lining up to give him multi-year deals. I think this deal could have easily been 1 year, $6m or thereabout.
Player: 3B Brad Williams
Team: NYY
Contract: 2/$16.7m (Opt-out after Year 1)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .236/.305/.403 (2.18 WAR/600)
Grade: C
Williams is a rare bird – a lefty third baseman – whose rarity has not been prized by the league in recent years. He sat out all of last year, unable to find a job, despite dependably destroying right-handed pitching (career 141 WRC+) and picking up his defense recent years. He adds an important left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Yankees infield, and a surprising lack of options at third after Robby White’s departure. He’s going to be a useful option for the Bronx Bombers, but he’s obviously not valued by the league, so I really don’t understand the opt-out here. He could easily drop off during his age-36 season, unnecessarily rendering him dead weight next year.
Player: RF Jesus Herrera
Team: LAD
Contract: 2/$16m
Expected park-neutral slash line: .237/.322/.374 (2.17 WAR/600)
Grade: B
Herrera has spent the vast majority of his career in Oakland, perhaps out of sight despite amassing 35 WAR. I was surprised that he didn’t garner more interest both at last year’s trade deadline and this offseason. A lot of that might have to do with recent underperformance – despite solid ratings and 60-plus power, he’s only bashed 22 home runs over the past two seasons combined. That, combined with slightly below-average defense, doesn’t make an enticing starting outfielder. I’m still optimistic that he’s got a little more pop going forward and that he’ll justify $8m a year as a dominant-side platoon outfielder, and he’ll most likely help keep an older Dodgers offense afloat as it hopes to support its young pitching.
Player: SP Edgar Bernal
Team: BOS
Contract: 2/$15m (Opt-out after year 1)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 6.2/2.3/1.1 (2.15 WAR/200)
Grade: B-
Despite an injury-riddled tenure in Detroit, the gap between Bernal, Rowe, Fisher and the other upper-crust starters of this year’s free agent class isn’t that big. As such, a front-loaded two-year pact for seven figures a year seems like a good gamble for a player who could still plausibly perform as a number two or three starter. The issue? You already know. [See: everything I’ve said about how much opt-outs hurt contract value.] Boston won’t be in a position to benefit much from any turn-back-the-clock performances from Bernal this year. A straight two-year pact worth $25m probably would’ve been more tradeable than this deal.
Player: RP Tanzan Sai
Team: TOR
Contract: 2/$14.7m
Expected park-neutral slash line: 9.2/3.8/0.8 (0.75 WAR/200)
Grade: B+
Sai is not nearly the reliever his overall rating (in the high-60s) suggests he is, as he’s bogged down by mediocrity against opposite-handed hitting, like all fastball-slider pitchers (especially sidearmers). He’s a fine innings-eating bullpen piece though, which Toronto sorely needed to complement a rotation that is rounding into form around Bob Collins and Joe Hickman. There was a surprising lack of dependable relievers on the market this year (Sai is only the second reliever whose deal we’ve evaluated, and only three relievers got eight-figure deals in free agency), so what would be a slight overpay for a middle reliever who flashes potential in other years seems like a decent bet, especially for a team so desperate to fill out a bullpen.
Player: 2B Mike Perkins
Team: NYY
Contract: 2/$11.5m (Year 2 VO, opt-out after Year 1)
Expected park-neutral slash line: .224/.298/.368 (2.30 WAR/600)
Grade: A-
Perkins is a nifty utility player who dependably handles lefty pitching, is beloved by fans and can fill in at eight positions. The Yankees rightly aren’t depending on San-Pao Zhu to smash his way to another 4 WAR season, and added both Perkins and Brad Williams (see above) to flesh out a thin infield around Marlon Williams and the first base platoon. Perkins also supplements a lefty-heavy outfield nicely, and I suspect he will see a fair amount of time at a lot of positions. But, hopefully not too much time – he has a pricier vesting option on the second year ($8m of the $11.5m total) if he hits 450 PAs, which I assume the Yankees will work to ensure he doesn’t meet. That’s part of this grade – you might be confused seeing such a high grade for a deal that includes an opt-out, but no 450 PAs means no opt-out, and 450 PAs is a lot for a utility player who probably will sit most of the time versus righties. What we then have is a $3m deal for a fitting utility player on a team that, like most excellent teams, is most preoccupied with plugging holes that become more exploitable in the postseason.
Player: SP Greg Paul
Team: NYM
Contract: 2/$11.2m
Expected park-neutral slash line: 6.2/3.0/1.3 (2.17 WAR/200)
Grade: B-
The Mets killed two birds with one stone here, nabbing a cheap rotation piece and taking away a former prospect from Paul and the Orioles. Paul’s ratings suggest he’s currently a fine back-end starter despite never pitching above A-ball; if the changeup continues to develop, he could be slightly more, especially if Charlie Richardson shares his secrets about how to suppress home runs despite giving up tons of fly balls. I don’t think over $5m a year is worth your average back-end starter, but the declining contract is nice, as are arbitration rights after year 2. The Mets find guys they like and pay them what’s needed to bring them in, and they deserve some deference given their track record.
Player: SP Jonathon Hardy
Team: CWS
Contract: 3/$10.2m (Year 3 PO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 6.5/2.8/1.2 (1.89 WAR/200)
Grade: B+
I sold early on Hardy because I thought he had a very low ceiling, since pitchers who strike out 6 or 7 per 9 and walk over 3 per 9 don’t have much room to create value (my spreadsheet agreed). I sent him to probably the best situation he could find in Portland, where he had some nice years putting up 2.5ish WAR and serving as a functional mid-rotation starter. In particular, he upped his strikeout rate in the later years to over 7 per 9, which I think makes him more likely to perform as a third or fourth starter than hanging on as a swingman or fifth starter. For a measly $3m a year, that’s a good bet, and at age 30, three years isn’t too risky (but really, a player option and opt-out for year 3? Are you trying to kill me?). He doesn’t do a ton to improve a Sox rotation that I still don’t like as a whole, but this is a reasonable swing and a movable contract.
Player: 3B Ben Hoffman
Team: BOS
Contract: 1/$10m
Expected park-neutral slash line: .242/.308/.395 (2.55 WAR/600)
Grade: A-
Like Brad Williams, Hoffman couldn’t find employment last season. GMs seemingly didn’t believe in his past performance, as he had 12 WAR over the past 3 seasons. His ratings haven’t declined over his sabbatical, and I think Boston can expect at least a couple of WAR from him this year, with a decent chance (let’s say 30 percent?) of an All-Star caliber season. Most teams do have third basemen, but some contenders might find that theirs aren’t as good as Hoffman, bringing Boston a couple of picks or prospects. Like I said in the Williams writeup, the lack of interest last year suggests a lower price could have been had for Hoffman, but I would’ve liked to see a team option tacked on in particular, as that would have further enhanced his value on the market.
Player: LF Stephen Hawking
Team: CHC
Contract: 1/$10m
Expected park-neutral slash line: .267/.379/.280 (0.77 WAR/600)
Grade: C-
Understandably at age 41, Hawking can’t field anymore, but he actually hit well last year, thanks to still elite plate discipline. But, a DH with a slightly-above average bat and 0 dinger potential isn’t too exciting, even for $10m of Cubbies funny money. He will help keep Cubs fans coming out to Wrigley (although they never stop, even when the Cubs aren’t contending), and is a leader for the young’uns as they come up. Maybe he’ll even fetch a tiny package at the deadline, but this is mostly just throwing money at a guy who’s fun to have without actually getting anything in return. If anyone can do that, it’s the Cubs.
Player: RP Artie Moore
Team: OAK
Contract: 2/$10m (Year 2 VO)
Expected park-neutral slash line: 8.5/1.9/1.1 (0.83 WAR/70)
Grade: A
Like Dan Gross above, Artie Moore isn’t the force he once was, but he’s still damn good. His ratings are similar to where they were for most of last season when he posted 2 WAR and a 75 FIP- (and I would be remiss if I didn’t at least ask you to go back and appreciate his Larsen-esque 5.4 WAR 2062 season). Oakland, or whoever trades for him, will have Moore around for year 2 absent an absolute implosion or injury, as he needs just 40 innings under his belt this year for the option to vest. It’s insane that nobody came in with a higher offer, as Moore might have been the best reliever on the market. Someone should, and will, pay Oakland hefty consideration for this contract.
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