The Least and Most Fortunate of the CBA

Baseball is a game of statistics, investigation, and analyzation. With thousands of pitches, at bats, and games occurring every year, teams and fans alike can dive into the numbers and learn new things about the game every single day. One thing the numbers can help us determine is which teams are good, which teams, which teams are bad (hint: it’s the Pandas), and which teams are over and underperforming. If we can find out which teams record is not matching their actual on-field performance, we can try to predict how things will play out down the stretch. Second half performance is especially crucial this year, as teams are clawing for spots in the coveted Premier League. How might we determine which teams records don’t match up with their actual performance? Well, we look no further than Bill James’ Pythagorean Record.

The Pythagorean Record was created by James in order to determine what records teams ‘should’ have incurred based solely on their runs scored and runs allowed. As many people know, baseball is a game of sequencing and most of the time hits and runs are compiled in random order. For example, a very good baseball team could outscore an opponent 20-1 in two games, yet go 1-1 because they scored all 20 of their runs in the first game. Much of these random fluctuations are a product of small sample size. As seasons run longer, teams actual records begin to closely match up to their Pythagorean Record. Of course, the theory isn’t perfect, and many teams will still experience large amounts of luck and misfortune over the course of the year, but it is still a useful and interesting tool. What I would like to do right now is show you the luckiest and unluckiest teams so far this season, and then open the discussion up for debate. It is inevitable that the luckiest teams will attest to their team’s ‘grit’ and ‘strategy’, while the unluckiest teams will moan and complain (like yours truly in Chicago), which is exactly what this article is aiming to do.

 

Let’s get started with a breakdown of the entire league:

Chart #1

The standings shown on the left are the actual standings as of today, June 6. They are color coded to show which league each team would place in if the season ended today. The standings shown on the right show where every team would place if they were playing to their exact Pythagorean Record. As you can see, there are a lot of changes. Many teams gain spots in the standings, many others lose spots, and the rest stay very close to their original position. The positive and negative numbers on the very right show how far the team would move in the overall standings if they Pythag Records were true. The teams that are higher in the standings on the right are the ones that have been ‘unlucky’, and vice versa for the ones that are lower. Another visual, which only highlights teams who would be in different leagues if everyone was performing at their Pythagorean Record, is shown below. Note, the teams are ordered by their actual records, but they are color coded based on what league they would be in if everyone was at their Pythag Records.

Chart #2

As you can see, not too many teams have been significantly affected by their relative ‘luck’ or lack thereof. Only the Roar, Liberty, Mammoths, Gale, Chupacabras, and Swarm would be on pace to be in a different league if the Phythag Records were the actual records. Now, we can dive a little deeper and discuss exactly which teams have been the luckiest and unluckiest thus far.

 

 

 

Luckiest

 

1. Carolina Aces: Actual 57-30, Pythagorean 51-36

This is a pretty bold thing to say about the top team in the league, but then again, maybe it helps explain how they got there. The Aces +90 run differential sits 8th in the league, which is right around where they would place in the Phythagorean standings. And if you look at the standings above, their Phytag record puts them only a tie breaker away from 10th place and dangerously close to the Silver League. Such a possibility is not something we would expect the first place team to worry about. But looking at the Aces actual performance so far, this does not come at too much of a surprise. While boasting a dominant offense (3rd in runs) with the help of Aaron Lawrence, Pat Stackhouse, and Brian Davis, their pitching has been mediocre and their defense has not helped them out. The team is 19th in runs allowed, and their defensive efficiency ranks 20th. Without a balanced team, the Aces are bound to regress unless they find a way to solve their pitching problem. They could start by realizing that Dennis Jones is a reliever, not a starter. And to Luis Rocha and Rich Garcia: Yikes.

2. Austin Outlaws: Actual 46-41, Phytagorean 42-45

Fortunate timing of runs may be the only difference between the Outlaws being a winning team team rather than a losing team. As the standings above show, the Silver League pace Outlaws may be a team whose talent is only good enough for the Bronze League. Their actual record is outperforming their Pythag by just 4 games, but that would be enough to drop them down 7 spots in the standings and into the league’s lowest tier. How do we know that the Outlaws may not be as good as they seem? Well, it starts with their pitching. Much like the Aces, their offense is picking up most of the slack and their hurlers are lagging behind. While boasting the 10th most runs in the league, the Outlaws pitching has tripped and stumbled their way to 25th in run prevention. And maybe their defensive has gotten tired of fielding so many balls, because with the leagues 2nd worst defensive efficiency (and 5th worst total ZR), it seems their players are just watching balls soar by them. There are two things the Outlaws should try to do because the rapidly approaching deadline: Improve their defensive, or grab a couple of pitchers to improve a rotation that includes two pitchers with an ERA over 6. Otherwise, their luck might not run for much longer.

3. Philadelphia Libery: Actual 51-35, Phythagorean 46-40

The Liberty, a very average team overall, have had enough things swing their way to push them right into the ranks of the Premier League. Their Pythag record is 5 games worse than their actual, which would be enough to drop them 5 games in the standings and right towards the top of the Silver League. The teams mediocre overall play, at this point, may not be enough to let their luck keep them in the Premier League for much longer. While they do boast the 6th best OBP, it is held up partially by the leagues 2nd highest BABIP (.328), which is likely to come down at some point in the season. And with a team ISO that ranks in the bottom half in the league, they don’t have much power to fall back on if their average starts to give out. What they have been able to rely on, however, has been their pitching staff, which holds the 6th best ERA in the league. It is a strong point that they should build around. If the liberty could add a bullpen piece and/or a nice power hitter, they can negate a potential regression and try to keep themselves in the Premier League.

 

Unluckiest

 

1. Portland Axemen: Actual 49-38, Pythagorean 55-32

The Portland Axemen are an undoubtedly elite team who have faced some unfortunate circumstances. They currently place 11th in the CBA, placing them at the top of the Silver League, even though they are tied with the Detroit Motors for the largest run differential in the league. There is not much more the Axemen could do to prove themselves worthy of a spot at the top of the Premier League, but so far their performance has not paid off. Portland is a top 10 team across the board: they get on base, they hit for power, their rotation is solid, and their bullpen gets it done. And while they’re only ranked 16th in defensive efficiency, they are ranking 7th in total zone rating, so they certainly perform in the field as well. Don’t be surprised if the Axemen surge to the top of the standings in the coming weeks, because luck will have to start falling their way soon. All things considered, this team is too talented for the Silver Legaue.

      2. Denver Wolves: Actual 42-45, Pythagorean 45-42

Like the Outlaws but in the opposite direction, the Denver Wolves are a below .500 team that very well be above .500. Furthermore, they are a bronze league team that has the talent and the performance to be sitting comfortably in the middle of the Silver League. Their offense has ranked among the best, carried by mashers Mike Becklin, Kevin Rayos, and Jeremiah Flowers (one of the better names in the CBA). However, their pitching has disappointed. They certainly hoped for more from starters Yoshiji Okuno and well as Jae-Shin Kim, and the injury of Alex Escalante has forced them to move a reliever into the bullpen. The pitching staff has a lot of talent, they just haven’t stepped up and taken charge yet. Perhaps if they add some depth in the rotation, or even the bullpen, their fortunes will be overturned and they will claw their way into the Silver League, where they would certainly prefer to be.

      3. Chicago Gale: Actual 49-38, Pythagorean 53-43

The misfortune of my hometown team has certainly begun its reversal since I first thought up this article, but their addition here is still warranted. Although the Gale has the 5th best Pythagorean record in baseball, they are barely hanging on to a spot in the Premier League. The Premier League is a coveted place to be, and with so many teams for battling for top spots, it is imperative for teams to capture opportunities when they can. Chicago’s Pythagorean record indicates that they have missed out on some of those opportunities. Their strength lies in their pitching and defense, which can both be argued as top five in the league up to this point. The only concern the team seems to have is their offense, which has only ranked as about league average across the board. If Chicago really wanted to raise themselves into the upper echelon of the CBA, they could trade for an impact that plays a position up the middle. Otherwise, they could sit tight as Rory Blas and Victor Solano come back from injuries and wait for the chips to fall their way. But sources close to the Gale say that GM Sam Desimone was recently heard saying, “F*** dat, my team is fine as it is”. This has not been confirmed.