The Trade
Cincinnati Reds send:
SP/1B Long-dong Gustafsson (MLB) [75% Retention for rest of year ONLY]
Kansas City Royals send:
SP Jeff Holt (AA)
SP Bobby Morgan (R-)
1B Joe Santos (AA)
1st and 2nd round picks 2052
Removal of PTBNL from Holcomb trade
Analysis: The best player in baseball is on the move. In a move that was long foretold by a Reds press release about two in-game months earlier, Long-dong Gustafsson has found a new home in Kansas City. The biggest takeaway is this: Will and Tim are not messing around with the management of their teams. Will is making it clear to the AL that he’s willing to take bold risks and be an aggressor in the trade market, going after aging guys with gobs of talent and challenging Father Time to take a backseat. You have to admire the stones. Tim’s move makes me feel like he doesn’t want to strip the team down to the studs and will likely instead opt for a “retool” type approach, receiving two nearly MLB-ready guys, two picks that could be used on prospects that have developed in college, and most importantly, massive salary relief to chase upgrades in free agency.
For Will, I think this move makes his rotation easily the most feared in baseball, and it’s not particularly close. Gustafsson/O’Halloran/Freestone are a stuff-lovers dream trio, each pitcher with the ability to strike out batters in bunches. When Tony Rodriguez might not even start in a playoff series for you, you know your team has a ton of talent at the top. The Royals obviously take on a massive amount of money in this deal, but they have a top-ten budget in the league, and players like Gustafsson don’t grow on trees. It’s a little risky on the back-end, but I think the production from LDG will more than make up for it. The only thing that really concerns me is health. Gustafsson is the only one of KC’s top four pitchers that isn’t either fragile or wrecked, and a couple of inopportune injuries could be absolutely crippling if they happen too close to each other. That’s more speculative than anything though, so until injuries actually do happen, I’ll hold off on concern there. Oh and, in case you didn’t know, LDG can hit too. That might be the biggest boon for the Royals in this trade, as LDG will instantly jump-start an offense that’s 15th in the AL in runs scored. The South Korea native is slugging a cool 137 OPS+ in a down year, and is instantly a massive, massive upgrade. Don’t count out the Royals for an outside shot at the division.
As for Tim, this trade also makes a ton of sense. The Reds needed to increase their flexibility badly, and the haul received for shipping off a franchise icon largely fits what would be expected in this type of a deal. Jeff Holt, the headliner prospect in the deal, could be a lethal front-line ace within the next year or two. Many think Holt’s non-traditional arsenal — sinker/slider/splitter — will hold him back from being truly great, but I think the combo of two double plus pitches and one plus pitch can make him a shutdown guy. While MiLB stats should be taken with a grain of salt, Holt has shown the consistent ability to keep the ball in the park, and once he develops strikeout stuff, he will make the next jump. Joe Santos will be on the shortlist of some of the most complete hitters in the league, following the mold of one of my favorite young guys in Doug Riverwallderson, and Bobby Morgan could also be excellent if he develops as projected. The picks are just an added bonus, although they will likely be just depth pieces with a weaker draft on the horizon.
Overall, the deal is a home run for both sides. Will gets a face of the franchise in LDG, and Tim gets to start his retooling with a bevy of top-notch prospects.
Grades: CIN-A, KC-A
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